Time Barrier

[doiron122]

which time barrier will be broken 1st

[BroeJob_5K]

thats a tough one, 2 houres for the marithon will never be broken, atleast as long as i live. out of those i would say the marithon will be the last to go. 1230 in the 5k is what i said, but who knows

[tb1223]

none of these are likely to go anytime soon, but i would say either 12:30 or 26:00 considering the world records for these two events are under the most threat this season.

[luv2run]

Agreed, the mile is a maybe but I voted 10000. Once we hit mid-12:30s two back-to-back 13:00s doesn't sound as crazy as it used to. But maybe the 5k will be first.

[runsteeple14]

i wanna see jeremy wariner make a run (no pun intended) at the 800m wr. we all know the kid is blazingly fast. train him in the 800 for a while and i can definitely see him going sub 1:44, if not faster

[Sully 800]

thats no where near the world record though.

He is much closer to the WR in his current event than that would put him in the 800...hypothetically, for it to be smart for him to switch to the 800, which he won't, I think he would need to run sub 1:43. Really though, I don't think there's any chance he's contemplating moving up. Everyone wants him to because he's white and fairly skinny, so we think he should be a good 800 runner. Anyway, I voted 10k, but I think 5k/10k is the most likely right now.

I also agree that the marathon will take the longest.

[Sully 800]

for some statistical analysis, here are the percentage drops the proposed times would be of the current records.

800- 1.098%
Mile- 1.403%
5k- 0.994%
10k- 1.285%
Marathon- 3.936%

This must then be coupled with other knowledge about the events. The marathon gets few very serious attempts, and the only real contender I see right now is Tergat breaking his own. Maybe Geb could drop it a few notches but I don't think that one is going sub 2 hours any time soon.

The mile is not contended very often and there are few people right now who have a legitimate shot of improving the record. Therefore I think this is the second least likely to drop.

The 800 is closer comparatively than the 10k, but right now it is not under much of a threat. However, assuming that Bekele doesn't drop the 10k below 26:00 we might have to wait a while before the next true contender comes along. In that time a great new 800 runner might appear to break the record, so I will actually put this ahead of 10k in terms of likeliness to happen.

Finally the 5k. It is already the closet to the given barriers. It is also under the most threat of being dropped significantly with Bekele and El G possible taking it down a few notches. Therefore I change my choice to a resounding vote for the 5k.

One additional problem is everything I've stated above assumes that all the records are relatively equal in stature currently, meaning none are significantly better or worse than the others. I'm not really sure about this, but I think the mile and the marathon are the weakest records, probably because they aren't raced as much. Maybe that makes them slightly more likely to be broken than the others, but I would still keep those as being the two hardest barriers to break at the moment.

[jeffA]

i wanna see jeremy wariner make a run (no pun intended) at the 800m wr. we all know the kid is blazingly fast. train him in the 800 for a while and i can definitely see him going sub 1:44, if not faster

FOR THE LAST TIME: Wariner DOES NOT plan on EVER running the 800m.
He is a SPRINTER.

[NJ5k]

I'd say the marathon is by a wide margin the "softest" record listed, followed by the 800. Then comes the mile, and a good bit ahead of that is the 10k, just behind the 5k.

[vallistastud49]

FOR THE LAST TIME: Wariner DOES NOT plan on EVER running the 800m.
He is a SPRINTER.
I guarantee this won't be the last time someone has to remind someone of that.

[Kniteryder]

FOR THE LAST TIME: Wariner DOES NOT plan on EVER running the 800m.
He is a SPRINTER.


THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU!!! I HAVE SAID THIS A MILLION TIMES ALREADY! LOL

[Jolly Farm]

All he said was that he wanted to see him take a run at it. He didn't say that he was going to, or even that he should.

[Beanfontaine]

5k definately. I have a feeling that in the next few years (4-6) the mile and 800m world records will be under threat due to a lot of fast 1500m african juniors that ran real well last year. Also Yuriy from Russia is going to run some fast 800's this year for sure. I see a handful of 1:43's and maybe even a 1:42 somwhere. He's really young and has room for improvement. Wilfred Bungei also ran some fast times last year.

[runsteeple14]

FOR THE LAST TIME: Wariner DOES NOT plan on EVER running the 800m.
He is a SPRINTER.

and sprinters never run 800m, right? god forbid that i'd want him to run an 800

[tigercoach]

What about 43 for the 400. That seems to within the realm of possiblity given the performance and age of some of the U.S. runners right now.

Tiger Coach

[bluphi1914]

thats no where near the world record though.

He is much closer to the WR in his current event than that would put him in the 800...hypothetically, for it to be smart for him to switch to the 800, which he won't, I think he would need to run sub 1:43. Really though, I don't think there's any chance he's contemplating moving up. Everyone wants him to because he's white and fairly skinny, so we think he should be a good 800 runner. Anyway, I voted 10k, but I think 5k/10k is the most likely right now.

I also agree that the marathon will take the longest.


Ok, I may be blind in some cases...but I have never read or heard anyone saying JW should move up to the 8 because he's white....I don't know why folks keep putting that out there. If he can run the 4, stick w/it. If the brothas who are running the 4 don't like it..then they are going to have to step up there game....plain and simple..if they don't want to get beat by this "white dude"....hey BRING IT ON and stop encouraging JW from running his bread and butter event.

[Agent Orange]

400? I highly doubt that this new crop of guys will go under 43 any time soon. I think we need to see more robust international competition, frankly. American quarter-milers were so dominant at the Olympics that I don't think there's the international pressure to take that record down. Also, 43.00 is really freakin' fast. Considering how far away people are from MJ's 19.32, I find it hard to believe that they're going to hit sub-43. The current class of 400m runners doesn't seem to show the mid/low 19s speed that I think they'll need to get around 43flat.

I would vote the 5k, mostly for the caliber of competition. We're all impressed by Ritz's 5k at Oregon (at least I was), and he's still nothing on the international scene. I don't think that El G is the guy to take down the record now; he seems to be too much of a sit-and-kick guy like he was in Athens to run a blazing time. Get another year of 5k-specific training in him, however, move Lagat up, let Bekele recover from the death of his fiance, and that record could go down at any number of meets in 2006. If we go into 2007 with the 5k record above a 12:30, I would be surprised.

[78Champ]

...but I have never read or heard anyone saying JW should move up to the 8 because he's white....I don't know why folks keep putting that out there.

Contradict yourself much?

JW (not Jeremy Wariner)

[Back_In_Black]

I'm betting the 10k will be the first to go. In the last decade the record has dropped 23 seconds, and 48 in the last 15 years. Bekele isn't done yet and there is some excellent up and coming talent. Also drastic time changes are much more likely to come in the longer distances.

[Kelly Spady]

i bet the 5k record will be the first barrier broken, i just have a feeling!

[reyp]

i like the 400 because of " the new crop of 400runners." How can you say you dont think this group of guys wont break 43. You got guys like warriner,clement, merrit, williamson, and usain bolt who are all extremele young and talented. They should be able to push each other under mj's record

[vallistastud49]

i like the 400 because of " the new crop of 400runners." How can you say you dont think this group of guys wont break 43. You got guys like warriner,clement, merrit, williamson, and usain bolt who are all extremele young and talented. They should be able to push each other under mj's record

The thought of someone running 42 for 400m makes me want to regurgitate. That is insane.

I agree with you though. How can one not think that these guys have what it takes to be as fast as Johnson if they remain as dedicated to the sport as he was. In fact, this group of guys parallels the group of MJ, Butch, Valmon, Pettigrew, Washington, (K)Young, a clean Jerome Young that it's scary in Wariner, O. Harris, Clement, Merritt, Brew, Willie, Rock et al. These guys are improving rapidly. No, I'm not saying these young guys have accomplished anything close to the aforementioned...at least not yet.

[bluphi1914]

Contradict yourself much?

JW (not Jeremy Wariner)

WTF????
??????

[Sully 800]

hahahah, i didn't notice what JW was referring to at first either, but thats really funny.

[78Champ]

WTF????
??????

Read the lines that I quoted from your post again and again until the bell goes off in your head.

JW

[bluphi1914]

Read the lines that I quoted from your post again and again until the bell goes off in your head.

JW


Not stressin it!!!!

[78Champ]

Not stressin it!!!!

Not stressin it, but are you at least understanding it?

JW

[Sully 800]

and anyway, you're bluphi, i don't believe i've ever heard anyone directly say "wariner should move to the 800 because he's white"...however, I think that is a reason why people feel that way, whether they realize it or not. Everyone looks at a white guy running a 400 and subconsciously thinks that he is not in the right event, because white people haven't had as much success in the sprints for quite a while. That coupled with the fact that people underestimate Wariner's 200 speed, and they think he's always been a 400 guy. In fact, he started out running mostly 200's in high school, and then moved up to the 400. It's not like he's approaching the 4 from the top end down.

Anyway, I think that people misunderstand Wariner when they say he should move to an 800 and I think his skin color is a big reason why people always say it for him. I personally would like to see ALL of our 400 guys try some 8's, because I think they could be very successful in both events.

[Tprince]

Nobody is about to take 26 seconds off a 10k, and nobody's gonna take 4:55 off a marathon either - that'd be like making it a mile shorter. The mile and 5k records are the most vulnerable, as Hicham feels he should have gone 3:41/2 based on his 1500 times, and there are currently countless amazing 5000 runners. Bekele is young, Hicham at Lagat have run great times with mile specific training, and I'm sure there are people I forget to mention. One of them can take 7 seconds off the record. About the 800, 1:40 is so fast, and I just don't think anybody currently running it could touch that.

[Beanfontaine]

yea. along with kipchoge who ran 12:46 early in the season last year. the 5000m is stacked.

[Dragonsoul]

Sub 2 hours for marathon is INSANELY fast and I don't know if it will be run, it'll be a long time if it does happen though. The mile is running less so who knows if there will be more records. Unless somebody super fast watns to run it for fun later, now we are in 1500. 800 hasn't been challenged recently. I say 60% chance 5k and 40% chance 10k.

Bekele could have run 12:34 and 26:10 last year with better rabbiting I think.

[SwiperTheFox]

Bekele could have run 12:34 and 26:10 last year with better rabbiting I think.

There aren't many guys around who can rabbit at 26:10 pace past 5k.

[Dragonsoul]

Dang! This is what is so annoying, the records are so fast now in 5k/10k it's hard to match them. They'll have to pay somebody super fast to do this. If he wants sub 26 he'd have to get an Ethiopian like Sihine or Gebremariam to help him out, there really is a difficulty. I'm not sure how fast he will run this year because he was out of shape earlier, we'll see. :p