PHSAA XC Teams 2006

[themanontherun]

What teams should appear at the state meet for each of the classes in XC 2006? Who will challenge for state titles? Provide a list of returning runners for invididual teams you bring up pleeease. :)

[Burned_in_Style]

feds would be a much more interesting topic

[pelican]

feds would be a much more interesting topic

qft

[themanontherun]

If you want to discuss that, then discuss that. Doesn't really matter to me, I am just curious who the class favorites are as well.

[Bward1]

AA
Section1-Arlington
Section2-Saratoga
Section3-Liverpool
Section4-Ithaca
Section5-Fairport
Section6-Orchard Park
Section8-Lynbrook
Section9-Warwick
Section11-Smithtown
teams in bold with the best shot of taking the team title. Warwicks has to be the favorite with home-course advantage.

[themanontherun]

AA
Section1-Arlington
Section2-Saratoga
Section3-Liverpool
Section4-Ithaca
Section5-Fairport
Section6-Orchard Park
Section8-Lynbrook
Section9-Warwick
Section11-Smithtown
teams in bold with the best shot of taking the team title. Warwicks has to be the favorite with home-course advantage.
I would put FM for section III, being from Fairport, I know a lot of their younger talents are really turning on in outdoor so I would put them in that top four group, and I thought Warwick was graduating all their best guys this year. Other than that, looks pretty good.

[Bward1]

AA
Section1-Arlington
Section2-Saratoga
Section3-FM
Section4-Ithaca
Section5-Fairport
Section6-Orchard Park
Section8-Lynbrook
Section9-Warwick
Section11-Smithtown
teams in bold with the best shot of taking the team title. Warwicks has to be the favorite with home-course advantage. I also think warwick has a lot of depth which they can make up im pretty sure but we will see how it turns out.

[Big Slick]

I dont think arlington will repeat as Section I champs. Either North Rockland or Scarsdale will win section I.

guesses that really dont mean anything but...
Class AA-FM
Class A-Burnt Hills
Class B-Whatever teams wins in section I Byram Hills probably
Class C-Pawling or Funda
Class D-Berne Knox????

[BrandNewHero106]

Just because you can't talk about Collegiate it doesn't mean that it's not worth talking about =P

There may or may not be an interesting section 3 battle going down for NYSPHSAA... (Top returning individuals with highest single speed ratings; I know it's not exactly accurate but it's still a good way to gauge the potential each team has)

FM:
194-182-176-173-158-155

Liverpool:
193-182-176-170-169-167-160


The top 4 guys are almost dead even, FM having the slight edge. The only problem (as others have already addressed) is FM's 5th man. If they can get a solid 5th man up into the high 160s or so, they'll definitely be one of the top teams in the state again; if they can't they might not even make it to NYSPHSAA...

Some other interesting Matchups:

Section 2 Class A:

Burnt-Hills:
182-172-172-169-165

Queensbury:
181-177-166-163-154


Section 2 Class AA:

Saratoga Springs:
200-180-171-156

Guilderland:
199-166-161

Shenendehowa:
182-177-161-159

Shaker:
181-171-164-163-162-153


Also in the mix should be...

Warwick:
183-175-172-171-166-164-161-160-159-159


Once again, I know that these single high speed ratings do not accurately reflect how good one team is vs. another, it is simply meant to give an estimate as to the potential that the various teams have for next season. Also, many runners have been injured or improved greatly since the fall, and none of that is take into account in these times.
Hope some people find this interesting/helpful...


Edit: As Peter mentioned, the Section 1 Class B competition should be fairly intense, as both Pearl River did win states, and if Byram had made it as a team, odds are extremely high they would have taken the state title as well (given that they placed their top 3 runners in the top 10 overall). Both teams are I believe only graduating one runner (and not their top runner on either side). Here are some numbers to look at...

Byram Hills:
181-176-168-149-147-144 (Lost #2- 178)

Pearl River:
174-172-164-157-148-136 (Lost #2- 170)


It looks like Byram has the clear edge, although few notes:
-Cawkwell (Byram's 176) was injured for most of winter and now is injured again for spring with a hip problem. Also, Byram's #1, Kasak, has run run 4:21, 9:35, and also split something like 1:57 on their 4x800, and their #3 (McDonald) has run under 10 in the 3200 a handful of times and also ran mid 4:30s in the 1600. Finally, Byram's 144 made some big improvements this track season and anchored Byram's 10:40 or something DMR with a 4:37 or something close.
-For Pearl river, their #1 guy has gone about 9:55 for the 3200 and also somewhere in the mid 4:30s. I don't think their #2 ran spring track, and one or two of their other guys has run mid 4:30s for the 1600. Not so sure bout the others.

Whichever of these teams wins state quals, there's a very good chance they'll win class B states as well.

[themanontherun]

Fairport returns 177-169-164-158-154, which is made up of SO-JR-JR-SO-JR

They also have a frosh at 150, a bunch of other sophs in the low 150s, and the incoming junior high county champ who should be low 150ish. Pretty young, deep team.

[iruntheduece]

i think the team title is gonna be between Warwick and Smithtown.

[Big K]

i think the team title is gonna be between Warwick and Smithtown.

No the team that comes out of section 3 will win it. Either Liverpool or FM and it will probably be FM.

[iruntheduece]

Warwick how can you count them out? They have so much depth and considering states is on their homecourse next year, theyre gonna be pretty hard to beat. Also i say Smithtown because they came in fourth last year and have 6 out of top 7 returning and im pretty sure they have a lot of depth also and can replace their 6th guy last year that they lost.