An Interesting Proposition...

[MaestroXC]

A frequent occurrence on the boards is someone asking how fast they can run based on workouts; I'd like to propose a challenge to all the gurus out there.

I'll provide a few workouts from my 2004 spring track season, and I'll let you try and guess what time I eventually did run. The person who is closest gets my undying love and gratitude, and mad respect on the board.

The Facts: Up until the spring season in question, I had been running the following events: 400, 800, and 1600. Until the previous winter (03-04), I had not run an open mile in competition. At the time of these workouts, I am a Senior in high school.

Performances of the 2003-04 indoor season:

400: Split 54.5 indoors. No documented open races.
800: Split 2:04 in leadoff at the Armory; the fastest recorded open time was 2:07
1000: 2:49
1600: Flat track indoor PR of 4:47.

The Workouts:

March 18, 2004: 10x400 on the track with 400m jogging rest. 1:16 1:12 1:13 1:15 1:19 1:18 1:18 1:18 1:18 1:18

March 22, 2004: 4x600 workout. 1:48 1:49 1:47 1:43. Unknown rest; between 2 and 3 minutes is likely.

March 24, 2004: 8x400 with 90 second rest. 67:64:67:72:73:72:72:72.

Now, predict my what I will run in the 1600 by mid-May. For bonus points, predict my best 800 as well.

Think you're up to it? Let the prognostication begin!

[watchout]

A frequent occurrence on the boards is someone asking how fast they can run based on workouts; I'd like to propose a challenge to all the gurus out there.

I'll provide a few workouts from my 2004 spring track season, and I'll let you try and guess what time I eventually did run. The person who is closest gets my undying love and gratitude, and mad respect on the board.

The Facts: Up until the spring season in question, I had been running the following events: 400, 800, and 1600. Until the previous winter (03-04), I had not run an open mile in competition. At the time of these workouts, I am a Senior in high school.

Performances of the 2003-04 indoor season:

400: Split 54.5 indoors. No documented open races.
800: Split 2:04 in leadoff at the Armory; the fastest recorded open time was 2:07
1000: 2:49
1600: Flat track indoor PR of 4:47.

The Workouts:

March 18, 2004: 10x400 on the track with 400m jogging rest. 1:16 1:12 1:13 1:15 1:19 1:18 1:18 1:18 1:18 1:18

March 22, 2004: 4x600 workout. 1:48 1:49 1:47 1:43. Unknown rest; between 2 and 3 minutes is likely.

March 24, 2004: 8x400 with 90 second rest. 67:64:67:72:73:72:72:72.

Now, predict my what I will run in the 1600 by mid-May. For bonus points, predict my best 800 as well.

Think you're up to it? Let the prognostication begin!

No info from anything you did in April and early May? You expect us to tell you what you ran without knowing what happened in the 50 days you left out?

[antispandex73]

No info from anything you did in April and early May? You expect us to tell you what you ran without knowing what happened in the 50 days you left out?
You still should have a good idea. I doubt he's changed his training much in that time period, so I'll go:

1600 - 4:34

800 - 2:01

Those workouts aren't anything impressive but i'm assuming he'll improve from last year.

[watchout]

You still should have a good idea. I doubt he's changed his training much in that time period, so I'll go:

1600 - 4:34

800 - 2:01

Those workouts aren't anything impressive but i'm assuming he'll improve from last year.

He broke his leg and didn't run the rest of the season. It's a trick question. YOU LOSE!

I'll post a similar format later, although I'll include more info if possible, on what happened either my soph year or junior year, see how close people can get to me, too. This is kinda a good idea, I just wish you had more info, Maestro.

[MaestroXC]

He broke his leg and didn't run the rest of the season. It's a trick question. YOU LOSE!

I'll post a similar format later, although I'll include more info if possible, on what happened either my soph year or junior year, see how close people can get to me, too. This is kinda a good idea, I just wish you had more info, Maestro.

The reason I didn't include more information is that often people are asked to predict times based on limited information; only a few weeks of practice or a single workout.

I think I gave you more information than is usually provided; I'm just trying to see people's thought processes and how close they can come to the actual outcome given only limited early-season data.

And no, I didn't suffer any major injuries during the season.

[watchout]

The reason I didn't include more information is that often people are asked to predict times based on limited information; only a few weeks of practice or a single workout.

I think I gave you more information than is usually provided; I'm just trying to see people's thought processes and how close they can come to the actual outcome given only limited early-season data.

And no, I didn't suffer any major injuries during the season.

Ok then, let's assume that you continued your rate of improvement, or close to it.

1600m- 4:38
800m- 2:03

[trebor deer]

Considering I was doing those workouts in 8th grade... I'll got with my 8th grade times of 5:10 and 2:14... just kidding

uhhhh I'll go with 4:36 and 2:02

[Zat0pek]

Hard to say because your 8 x 400 workout is not in line with other two, plus you're asking for a prediction two months after these workouts were run. Waaay too many unknown variables (How big was your base when you started? Had you raced previously? Any interval workouts before these or were these the first ones of the season? Just to name a few) to make any kind of accurate prediction.

I'll go 4:46 for 1600 and 2:09 for 800.

[luv2run]

4:41
2:03

my best guess

[trebor deer]

I agree with Zat0pek.. end of story

[Sully 800]

I'll go 4:46 for 1600 and 2:09 for 800.

so basically the same time in the 1600 and a significant slow down in the 800? i dont get it.

[ChasingDestiny]

i see not a big improvement in the 800 (my guess is 203) while you managed to get some time off the mile but not too much unless your workouts are way easy for you...(439)
when Can we know?

[MaestroXC]

I'll post the outcome tonight, at about 10, after I finish this paper I'm writing.

Zat0pek and others: I deliberately did not give you much information. The point is to test how good we really are at answering the questions (when they come up) of "I've run X at Y with Z rest, predict what I can run!"

If anyone else would like to throw out a similar problem based on their own training, I'd welcome the challenge. These cases also provide reference in case someone does have an actual prediction request.

[gesser]

2:05
4:45

The workouts are good, but don't indicate sub 4:40 or 2:04 times to me.

*The 600 workout seems like you had lots of rest. Your 400 repeat times don't indicate you could run ~1:46 for the average of them. Since you couldn't handle 8 sub 1:10 400m repeats, I don't think you could average ~1:46 with only 2 minutes rest.

[watchout]

Ok, here is my scenario from last year (Junior season). Can you guess what I ran in the 1600 in mid April?

Base: 45-55 mpw for the last 4 months straight
Previous Season PR: 5:03 1600m (Sophmore season)

Workout 3/30/04 - 6x400 w/ 100 seconds rest: 69-71-74-72-74-72
Workout 4/6/04 - 9x400 w/ 100 seconds rest: 70-76-72-72-74-72-77-74-74

I didn't run Indoors, and this was my second year running. Goodluck to all! And Kevin, you can't answer these because I have probably posted them before.

[ARAGON FroBoy]

Ok, here is my scenario from last year (Junior season). Can you guess what I ran in the 1600 in mid April?

Base: 45-55 mpw for the last 4 months straight
Previous Season PR: 5:03 1600m (Sophmore season)

Workout 3/30/04 - 6x400 w/ 100 seconds rest: 69-71-74-72-74-72
Workout 4/6/04 - 9x400 w/ 100 seconds rest: 70-76-72-72-74-72-77-74-74

I didn't run Indoors, and this was my second year running. Goodluck to all! And Kevin, you can't answer these because I have probably posted them before.


slow. I cant go wrong with that answer.

haha, just kidding man, uhm...I'd say maybe 4:48-9

[MaestroXC]

And now, the revelation...

1600: 4:40
800: 2:02


luv2run was the closest; with a prediction of 4:41 and 2:03. Mad props, yo.

[watchout]

And now, the revelation...

1600: 4:40
800: 2:02




Sweet, I was only 2 off in the 16 and 1 of in the 8. :)

[clintonxc v2.0]

This is a cool idea. I'll give my workouts and anybody who wants can try to predict my 1500 and 800 times.

6x400=82,80,79,79,78,77

4x600=1:57,1:58,1:58,1:59

5x300=52,48,48,50,51

[OneMoreRunner]

And Kevin, you can't answer these because I have probably posted them before.
damn:(

[runinstripes]

Ill post what I ran this week in a workout and see if you can guess what I have run in the past 2 weeks for 1600M (not PR)

Workout--(Note all rest is equal distance jog) 2x600 in 1:41, 3x400 in 66,67, 4x300 in 48 6x200 in 29-31

Workout 2-- 3x2Mins going through the 400 in 67-8 6x1min same pace 8x30 secs same pace (Note rest is half of the interval)

[luv2run]

1600: 4:40
800: 2:02

luv2run was the closest[barely]Ha! Pure luck pays off yet again.

I'll keep guessing for others, though, and run the risk of being horribly wrong.



watchout--4:54

clintonxc--5:09 (1500), 2:23

runinstripes--hard to tell ... 4:33

OK, I'm all guessed out. Go out on a limb and guess, folks.

[watchout]

Ok, I've waited a few days.

luv2run was close, I ran a 5:00.high last april.

[watchout]

This is a cool idea. I'll give my workouts and anybody who wants can try to predict my 1500 and 800 times.

6x400=82,80,79,79,78,77

4x600=1:57,1:58,1:58,1:59

5x300=52,48,48,50,51

hmmm. Sorry if I get these wrong!

1500m: 5:19
800m: 2:27

[watchout]

Ill post what I ran this week in a workout and see if you can guess what I have run in the past 2 weeks for 1600M (not PR)

Workout--(Note all rest is equal distance jog) 2x600 in 1:41, 3x400 in 66,67, 4x300 in 48 6x200 in 29-31

Workout 2-- 3x2Mins going through the 400 in 67-8 6x1min same pace 8x30 secs same pace (Note rest is half of the interval)

Wow, this one is real tough ... I'll guess a ... umm ... 4:40.

[the ace]

Wow, this one is real tough ... I'll guess a ... umm ... 4:40.
Hey guess what I jumped this year based off the following info: I've grown one inch since last year, I eat lunch everyday now, and my PR in the mile is 4:40.

[runinstripes]

Ill post what I ran this week in a workout and see if you can guess what I have run in the past 2 weeks for 1600M (not PR)

Workout--(Note all rest is equal distance jog) 2x600 in 1:41, 3x400 in 66,67, 4x300 in 48 6x200 in 29-31

Workout 2-- 3x2Mins going through the 400 in 67-8 6x1min same pace 8x30 secs same pace (Note rest is half of the interval)
Well...the answer is 4:22.5.........that is what i ran today...

[Kryptonite]

March 18, 2004: 10x400 on the track with 400m jogging rest. 1:16 1:12 1:13 1:15 1:19 1:18 1:18 1:18 1:18 1:18

March 22, 2004: 4x600 workout. 1:48 1:49 1:47 1:43. Unknown rest; between 2 and 3 minutes is likely.

March 24, 2004: 8x400 with 90 second rest. 67:64:67:72:73:72:72:72.

ARE YOU A GIRL??

[clintonxc v2.0]

hmmm. Sorry if I get these wrong!

1500m: 5:19
800m: 2:27

clintonxc--5:09 (1500), 2:23


Either you both are horrible guessers or I completely suck at practices

1500-4:42
800-2:08

[antispandex73]

Either you both are horrible guessers or I completely suck at practices

1500-4:42
800-2:08
Your workouts are obviously not indicative of your racing performance. Or those workouts weren't at full effort, and they still may be horrible guessers.

[clintonxc v2.0]

Your workouts are obviously not indicative of your racing performance. Or those workouts weren't at full effort, and they still may be horrible guessers.

I was pretty tired after all those workouts.
I also get about 20mpw and was injured most of the offseason.

[luv2run]

Well...the answer is 4:22.5.........that is what i ran today...Wow, congrats.

Ditto clinton. Guys on our team who go about 5:00 in the mile were running 74-78 for 12x400, so ... yeah your race was much better than your 6x400 workout. Or any of the others. Nice 800, too.

P.S. I guess this shows that pure luck doesn't pay off much.

[watchout]

Either you both are horrible guessers or I completely suck at practices

1500-4:42
800-2:08

Well, we have an 800 runner that runs 2:07, and he runs 6x400 @ 64s. We have a 4:55 1500 runner that runs 6x400 @ 70. IMO, your workouts are def. not a good indicator.

We have a guy that runs similar times. He runs a 5:3x 1600 and a 2:29 (PRed this on Friday) 800.

[MaestroXC]

A 4:42 1500 is a 5:04.5 1600, so the 400 reps of about 80 seconds (or 5:20 pace) do sound slow, especially considering he only did 6.

Clinton, I'd be interested in knowing how fast you are at 400, and 200 if possible, to give a baseline.

[clintonxc v2.0]

A 4:42 1500 is a 5:04.5 1600, so the 400 reps of about 80 seconds (or 5:20 pace) do sound slow, especially considering he only did 6.

Clinton, I'd be interested in knowing how fast you are at 400, and 200 if possible, to give a baseline.

56 split and I've no idea

[M_ER_CU_RY]

4:39
2:05