All-Time American Distance Lists, by Region

[KevinM]

As promised on the Teg thread, I think it would be interesting to break down the all-time US lists for the 1500-marathon by region, and then do a per capita comparison. I'm willing to do most of the legwork, but was interested in hearing opinions on how to break down each region. I thought initially that I'd go by Footlocker regions, but wondered if NTN regions would make more sense (with some modifications). I'm not interested in normalizing population, just grouping regions properly. If there's ANY interest in me doing this, speak up. If not, I'll do something far more productive with my time!

[king99]

I think FL REgions are fine..

I would not go back now, any further than 10 years.

Why? These guys would be in the edge of Primes at 28 and under, so very relevant

WE could argue the All Time stuff, like we do forever.

If folks want to throw in Goucher etc as 30+ fine with me..but it adds another ton of runners for 3 years or more of analysys in between.

Go for it..I look forward to it. .

[Zat0pek]

I posted on the T&FN board looking for the results of their study of sub-4:00 milers per capita by state. If I get it, I'll throw that in the mix as well.

[king99]

don;t bother, it is old news thaa suits your rgument..Not relevant anymore.

Move forward, we already know results of that study

There was nothing to do in NW and MW in the 60's 70's other than run, you had even less channels to watch than us in the NE!!:D

[Zat0pek]

don;t bother, it is old news thaa suits your rgument..Not relevant anymore.

Move forward, we already know results of that study

There was nothing to do in NW and MW in the 60's 70's other than run, you had even less channels to watch than us in the NE!!:D

Old news? It's only a couple of years old!

[KS Roadrunna]

I think FL REgions are fine..

I would not go back now, any further than 10 years.

Why? These guys would be in the edge of Primes at 28 and under, so very relevant

WE could argue the All Time stuff, like we do forever.

If folks want to throw in Goucher etc as 30+ fine with me..but it adds another ton of runners for 3 years or more of analysys in between.

Go for it..I look forward to it. .

What's the point of an "all-time" list if you're only going to go back 10 years? I would call that a last decade list.

[king99]

I thought we started talking about TEg, then it evolved into a Wiscy stomps concept

To use guys from 30 years ago to support a Solinsky and Teg superiority point?

Not sure I get this, or even in a MW over NE thing ??

That was my point, I am interested in guys running now or recently..not 25 years ago, and NOT because of anything other than what I said

Marty L and Centrowitz plus Salazar are better than everyone except Ryun and Virgin, if we are using that anyway

[KevinM]

What part of "per capita" don't you understand?

[king99]

who is that directed to I did not say anything regarding that whole thing..at all..

[KS Roadrunna]

There have been a lot of guys from the "MW" in the last 10 years touching the all-time lists. Ritz, Teg, Torres, Gruber, Broe, Goucher, Kennedy,

should I keep going?

[KevinM]

Sorry, is directed towards you. You responded to Zat's contention that the Midwest does a better job than the NE at producing class runners and that a 1:1 ratio or even a 2:1 ratio is meaningless when the population of the NE far exceeds that of the Midwest. Saying that Liquori, Centrowitz, and Salazar = Virgin and Ryun (I'd throw Chapa into Centro's class) only helps prove Zat's point.

I think the Wisco thing is not the point anymore, and I actually don't think that they're doing anything special up there beyond amassing talent and trying hard not to screw it up, with mixed results, but this thread is geared at exploring the regional differences.

If you coach at a coed high school with 1200 students and you produce 75% of the number of DI athletes as a school with 2500 students, you're doing a darn good job and showing a higher rate of production than the larger school. Same thing here with regions and population.

[KevinM]

Ok, we'll do it your way to start out -- anyone have US lists 1995-2006? T&FN is notoriously bad about updating, and really only go 10 deep anyway. I recall Malmo posting some deep 5K and 10K all-time lists on letsrun and may look for those.

[KS Roadrunna]

Here's 2000-2006.

http://www.usatf.org/statistics/topMarks/

[Zat0pek]

From the T&FN board, here's the sub-4 breakdown by state per million population as of 2000 (based on the state where the runner went to high school) with the bolded states for king's benefit ;) :

Using the above list of milers by state and using the 2000 population figures, I calculated the # of sub-4 milers per million people in the state. The undisputed "miler power" champion is (the envelope please...) Oregon!
The list:

STATE POP SUB4's SUB4's per million
OR 3421399 18 5.261006
KS 2688418 9 3.347694
RI 1048319 3 2.861724
SD 754844 2 2.649554
ID 1293953 3 2.318477
WA 5894121 13 2.205588
NM 1819046 4 2.198955
DC 572059 1 1.748071
HI 1211537 2 1.650796
MI 5595211 9 1.608518
ME 1274923 2 1.568722
ND 642200 1 1.557147
VA 7078515 11 1.553998
MN 4919479 6 1.219641
NY 18976457 23 1.212028
CO 4301261 5 1.162450
IL 12419293 14 1.127278
MA 6349097 7 1.102519
CA 33871648 37 1.092359
NJ 8414350 9 1.069601
OH 11353140 11 0.968895
MI 9938444 9 0.905574
UT 2233169 2 0.895588
CT 3405565 3 0.880911
PA 12281054 10 0.814262
WI 5363675 4 0.745757
IA 2926324 2 0.683451
TX 20851820 14 0.671404
LA 4468976 3 0.671295
NE 1711263 1 0.584364
MD 5296486 3 0.566413
WV 1808344 1 0.552992
IN 6080485 3 0.493382
AZ 5130632 2 0.389816
AR 2673400 1 0.374056
OK 3450654 1 0.289800
SC 4012012 1 0.249251
NC 8049313 2 0.248468
AL 4447100 1 0.224866
TN 5689283 1 0.175769
FL 15982378 2 0.125138
WY 493782 0 0.000000
VT 608827 0 0.000000
NV 1998257 0 0.000000
NH 1235786 0 0.000000
MT 902195 0 0.000000
MS 2844658 0 0.000000
KY 4041769 0 0.000000
GA 8186453 0 0.000000
DE 783600 0 0.000000
AK 626932 0 0.000000

Personally, given their weather, I have to think that CA, TX and FL are the biggest underachievers in the country.

Relative to the NE, Vermont, New Hampshire and Delaware have never produced a single sub-4 miler, while it looks as though every state in the midwest has.

I'm sure there are changes in other states, but the Kansas number goes to 3.719 per million population with the recent addition of Christian Smith.

[KS Roadrunna]

If you really wanted an accurate number, get the average population of each state since sub 4's have been run. New York has maintained a pretty constant population, whereas others have increased greatly over the last 40 years.

[KevinM]

Can anyone think of a 1500 athlete (post-1994) who should be on this list? It's likely I'm missing some of the lower rankers from pre-1996. Sorry for the weird rounding. I plugged these into a spreadsheet that jacked them up.

1995-2006 (rough draft)

1500m
Steve Holman MN 3:31.5 MW
David Krummenacker NM 3:31.9 MW
Alan Webb VA 3:32.5 S
Chris Lukezic WA 3:33.3 W
Seneca Lassiter VA 3:33.7 S
Paul McMullen MI 3:33.9 MW
Charlie Gruber CO 3:34.7 MW
Rob Myers OH 3:34.9 MW
Mike Stember CA 3:35.1 W
Gabe Jennings WI 3:35.2 MW
Jason Pyrah MO 3:35.2 MW
Jon Rankin CA 3:35.3 W
Bryan Berryhill OR 3:35.5 W
Grant Robison OR 3:35.7 W
Anthony Famiglietti NY 3:35.8 NE

5000m
Bob Kennedy OH 12:58.2 MW
Matt Tegenkamp MO 13:04.9 MW
Adam Goucher CO 13:10.0 MW
Alan Webb VA 13:10.9 S
Tim Broe IL 13:11.8 MW
Meb Keflezighi CA 13:11.8 W
Ian Dobson OR 13:15.3 W
Dan Browne OR 13:16.0 W
Ryan Hall CA 13:16.0 W
Dathan Ritzenhein MI 13:16.6 MW
Nick Rogers WA 13:18.5 W
Todd Willams MI 13:19.5 MW
Ryan Wilson CA 13:19.6 W
Jorge Torres IL 13:20.6 MW
Jonathan Riley MA 13:21.1 NE

10,000m
Meb Keflezighi CA 27:14.0 W
Todd Williams MI 27:31.3 MW
Alan Culpepper TX 27:33.9 W
Alan Webb VA 27:34.7 S
Dathan Ritzenhein MI 27:35.6 MW
Anthony Famiglietti NY 27:37.7 NE
Bob Kennedy OH 27:38.4 MW
Dan Browne OR 27:42.2 W
Chris Fox (!) VA 27:53.0 S
Nick Rogers WA 27:55.2 MW
Clint Wells CO 27:56.9 MW
Brad Hauser TX 27:58.0 S
Adam Goucher CO 27:59.4 MW
Ian Dobson OR 27:59.7 W
Matt Lane ME 28:00.0 NE

Steeplechase
Daniel Lincoln AR 08:08.8 S
Mark Croghan OH 08:10.4 MW
Tim Broe IL 08:14.8 MW
Pascal Dobert MD 08:15.8 NE
Marc Davis CA 08:17.6 W
Steve Slattery NJ 08:17.9 NE
Anthony Famiglietti NY 08:17.9 NE
Robert Gary IL 08:19.2 MW
Brian Olinger OH 08:19.6 MW
Isaiah Festa CA 08:20.7 W
Tony Cosey TN 08:21.4 S
Tom Chorny MI 08:22.2 MW
Francis O'Neill CA 08:22.5 W
Clint Wells CO 08:23.3 MW
Darin Shearer MA 08:23.6 NE

[KS Roadrunna]

Matt Tegenkamp 3:35.96 of course. When I have time I'll help you out.

[Zat0pek]

Can anyone think of a 1500 athlete (post-1994) who should be on this list? It's likely I'm missing some of the lower rankers from pre-1996. Sorry for the weird rounding. I plugged these into a spreadsheet that jacked them up.

1995-2006 (rough draft)

1500m
Steve Holman MN 3:31.5 MW
David Krummenacker NM 3:31.9 MW
Alan Webb VA 3:32.5 S
Chris Lukezic WA 3:33.3 W
Seneca Lassiter VA 3:33.7 S
Paul McMullen MI 3:33.9 MW
Charlie Gruber CO 3:34.7 MW
Rob Myers OH 3:34.9 MW
Mike Stember CA 3:35.1 W
Gabe Jennings WI 3:35.2 MW
Jason Pyrah MO 3:35.2 MW
Jon Rankin CA 3:35.3 W
Bryan Berryhill OR 3:35.5 W
Grant Robison OR 3:35.7 W
Anthony Famiglietti NY 3:35.8 NE
Brian Hyde MI 3:35.8 MW
Said Ahmed MA 3:35.9 NE

5000m
Bob Kennedy OH 12:58.2 MW
Matt Tegenkamp MO 13:04.9 MW
Adam Goucher CO 13:10.0 MW
Alan Webb VA 13:10.9 S
Tim Broe IL 13:11.8 MW
Meb Keflezighi CA 13:11.8 W
Ian Dobson OR 13:15.3 W
Dan Browne OR 13:16.0 W
Ryan Hall CA 13:16.0 W
Dathan Ritzenhein MI 13:16.6 MW
Nick Rogers WA 13:18.5 W
Todd Willams MI 13:19.5 MW
Ryan Wilson CA 13:19.6 W
Jorge Torres IL 13:20.6 MW
Jonathan Riley MA 13:21.1 NE

10,000m
Meb Keflezighi CA 27:14.0 W
Alan Culpepper TX 27:33.9 W
Alan Webb VA 27:34.7 S
Dathan Ritzenhein MI 27:35.6 MW
Anthony Famiglietti NY 27:37.7 NE
Bob Kennedy OH 27:38.4 MW
Dan Browne OR 27:42.2 W
Chris Fox (!) VA 27:53.0 S
Nick Rogers WA 27:55.2 MW
Clint Wells CO 27:56.9 MW
Brad Hauser TX 27:58.0 S
Adam Goucher CO 27:59.4 MW
Ian Dobson OR 27:59.7 W
Matt Lane ME 28:00.0 NE
Mike Donnelly ? 28:02.3 ?

I count 20 entries from the MW (including the top two at 1500 and the top 3 in the 5000) to 5 for the NE (it would have only been 4 but AnFam appears on two lists). I'd say that's about right.

Also, when did Todd Williams run his 27:3x? I see him on the 5,000 list but not the 10,000.

King is not gonna be happy. . .:o :rolleyes:

[newestmember]

Also, when did Todd Williams run his 27:3x? I see him on the 5,000 list but not the 10,000.
27:31 in 1995.

[Zat0pek]

Also need to add Abdi's 27:22 at 10,000 from this year.

Oops! Once Williams and Abdi are added, that pushes one of the NE guys (Matt Lane) off the 10,000 list, knocking that region down to four marks by only three runners in total on all three lists.

That's only 8.89% of the (4/45) of the marks on the three lists held by runners originating from the NE. Contrast that with about 44.44% (20/45 as the list currently stands) coming from the midwest.

What region will Williams and Abdi be in? Drawing a blank on their high schools. Maybe the NE makes a gain there that I can't remember.

[KevinM]

Did Abdi attend more than a year of HS in the US? I believe he went to HS in Tucson. If no more than a year, I feel comfortable leaving him out in this situation. That is NOT intended to start any sort of debate, mind you. I wouldn't count Marius Bakken for York, so I wouldn't count Abdi in that case. Williams is from Michigan.

Anyone know where Donnelly is from? Ran at Providence, no?

[KevinM]

Here's a surprise -- The MW Footlocker Region actually has FAR more people than the NE -- 74.6 million to 61.1 million (2005 estimates). See King? That's why we do the research -- to prove our misconceptions wrong! ;)

The SOUTH has the most (96.9 million, mostly thanks to Texas and Florida), and the West is neck and neck with the NE for smallest, with 61.2 million. My math may be a bit off, and I'd welcome anyone who wants to take a look at the figures, since I kinda flew through them, but I think it's fairly accurate.

[KS Roadrunna]

That sounds about right. A couple years ago I went thru all that. The sad thing is even with the huge population advantage, the south still gets whipped year in & year out at footlocker.

[Joe Lanzalotto]

That's only 8.89% of the (4/45) of the marks on the three lists held by runners originating from the NE. Contrast that with about 44.44% (20/45 as the list currently stands) coming from the midwest.

There is a saying "don't poke the crazy people". You know that one?:D

[Zat0pek]

There is a saying "don't poke the crazy people". You know that one?:D

There are few things more entertaining than poking king with a stick. :D

[Zat0pek]

Here's a surprise -- The MW Footlocker Region actually has FAR more people than the NE -- 74.6 million to 61.1 million (2005 estimates). See King? That's why we do the research -- to prove our misconceptions wrong! ;)

Even at that, the MW with about 22% more population still has TEN TIMES (1000%) more people on your list, so there is still vastly greater production per capita out of the MW than the NE.

King still loses. :D :eek: ;)

[KevinM]

Would you go so far as to say you looked at these numbers, sat back, and thought, "It is what it is"?

[Zat0pek]

Would you go so far as to say you looked at these numbers, sat back, and thought, "It is what it is"?

Guy I office with just asked what I was laughing at when I read that.

[KS Roadrunna]

Lmao

[king99]

guys..i never said ANYTHING regarding the per capita..thing

I said that right now,,is what I care about

[Zat0pek]

guys..i never said ANYTHING regarding the per capita..thing

I said that right now,,is what I care about

Gee, that's not what you said earlier in this thread when Kevin proposed the idea:


I think FL REgions are fine..

I would not go back now, any further than 10 years.

Why? These guys would be in the edge of Primes at 28 and under, so very relevant

WE could argue the All Time stuff, like we do forever.

If folks want to throw in Goucher etc as 30+ fine with me..but it adds another ton of runners for 3 years or more of analysys in between.

Go for it..I look forward to it. .


But given the results, I can understand why you'd want to backpedal. ;) :D

[king99]

I NEVER said **** about the per capita thing./ever..ONLY the REgional issue..

Why is this something you are holding onto so tight.??

I am talking about NOW..or recent..NOT years ago..I said this 3 times already..

I KNEW what the f'ing list looked like when I started this..ye aye aye..