Showdown at 10k in 2008?

[TIGERCROSS 09]

So we have meb, abdi and culpepper who have said that they will be running the 10k. Then you have ritz who says that he still hasn't decided which one to focus on but will definately run the trials. Factor in the college guys like rupp and mcdougal, and then your jorge torres, jason hartmann, dan browne, possibly adam goucher depending on what he thinks his chances are in the 5k, maybe ryan hall will jump in for the hell of it and you could have a showdown between all the best 10k runners of the past decade from the U.S. Just that group alone has more national titles than I'm willing to count, but it is well in excess of 30. There have got to be some guys that I left out too. I tell you what, I'm excited! put out your predictions now.

1.Ritz
2.Abdi
3.Culpepper
4.Torres
5.Meb

[Quenton Cassidy]

Culpepper has said in interviews, the passion for to run is kind of losing its stride for him. So I dont think he has much heart or determination to do well.

[Ash Catch'em]

Culpepper has said in interviews, the passion for to run is kind of losing its stride for him. So I dont think he has much heart or determination to do well.
i dont see him calling it quits till after the trials.

[JaredR]

i dont see him calling it quits till after the trials.

Josh Rohatinsky, possibly. PR of 27:55 right now.

[jacksparrow34313]

So we have meb, abdi and culpepper who have said that they will be running the 10k. Then you have ritz who says that he still hasn't decided which one to focus on but will definately run the trials. Factor in the college guys like rupp and mcdougal, and then your jorge torres, jason hartmann, dan browne, possibly adam goucher depending on what he thinks his chances are in the 5k, maybe ryan hall will jump in for the hell of it and you could have a showdown between all the best 10k runners of the past decade from the U.S. Just that group alone has more national titles than I'm willing to count, but it is well in excess of 30. There have got to be some guys that I left out too. I tell you what, I'm excited! put out your predictions now.

1.Ritz
2.Abdi
3.Culpepper
4.Torres
5.Meb
Rupp.

[Milesofsmiles15]

Rupp.

i feel like rupp will be more of a factor i the next trials, but i could also see myself eating these words. he'll probably either do extremely well, or awful.

[maniacmiler]

it's scary to think how many guys career for all intents and purposes just ended yesterday.


I hope Culpepper bust some good 10's and make that team. I mean next olympics Meb will be 36.....that's getting up there and it seems like his age is starting to get to him now anyway.

[Achilles]

All of the aformentioned guys will almost certainly run the 10k at the trials. Culpepper said this is his last olympic cycle but he feels he probably has two more years of competitive running in him. People forget he also ran real well at the XC champs this year, i dont think he is done. He also got fourth at the 10k this year.

Rupp is taking off from school just to train for that race, i think he can certainly and most likely will make the team.

Ritz should also make this team, he has the best speed in the field basically by far (8:11) and has proved that this move to eugene is probably for the best.

Torres i dont give much of a shot to making this team, but he COULD surprise. He doesnt have the PR's and accomplishments of many of the others but is still competitive.

McDougal i really hope is competitive in this race, he seems to be JUST outside of the top 5 guys or so in the 5k and 10k. I assume he will pick 10k but will be the only one with a college season.

Goucher i believe will end up doing the 5k, he made the team last year in it and will face most of the same people with the exception of a ready to go Solinsky.

Abdi, should make this team, has basically the fastest PR and has been running the best from 10k-half marathon of basically everyone, Hall has the half but no 10k really to speak of, Abdi has both.

Hall may or may not run this race, i hope he does and mixes it up but as he has said all along he just loves to train and disapear for a while and just get in great shape.

Then there are the "darkhorses" that really came on big this year in some events, Carney, Hartman, Rohat, Moran, Fam all could POSSIBLY steal a spot on the team, i think its unlikely but all these guys are legit.

Fam has some options but i think his best chance to make the team is the steeple. I dont think hartman and rohat are really ready to make this team, they are great runners though. Carney has been improving big time and Moran has been overlooked completly of recent times and was competitive last year in the 5k.

Should be a great event at the trials. Got to love the state of US distance running now. The least exciting event is probably the 1500 and we have two of the top 5-6 guys in the world in that. 5k and 10k will be a big fight to make the team, especially after the slight upsets that happened this weekend.

[starsxburn]

achilles. that was a great synopsis.


i feel much more knowledgeable.

[jacksparrow34313]

I think the 1500, 5k, and 10k teams are going to look very similar to the way they looked this year, although with a few changes depending on what events guys choose to run. 1500 I can see being the same three guys, with Lomong and Lukezic also having a shot, especially if Lagat chooses to only run the 5k. I'd take Lomong over Lukezic, although he could opt out of running on the team because he has a college season, or he may run a different event. In the 5k, I think 1-2 will be the same, but I see Solinsky replacing Goucher. In the 10k, I would predict right now the same three guys who qualified last year, although of course Ritz could decide to run the marathon and mix things up, and one of them might not qualify. The next best guys may be the likes of Goucher, Rohatinksy, McDougal, Meb and Culp, to name a few possibles.

[Slow Runner]

I don't see how Hall would not run the marathon, even if he does do well at 10k trials.

[AquinasCrossCountry9]

I don't see how Hall would not run the marathon, even if he does do well at 10k trials.

duh

[Slow Runner]

duh

Read what Achilles posted.

[XCrunner000]

Classic Showdown between Meb,Abdi, and Culpepper FTMFW!!!!:cool:

[010]

Unless Ritz decides to focus on this, I think Rupp will run away with it. He was so strong in this event last year and i imagine he will be even stronger this year. I think Abdi will make the team too.

[JaredR]

Unless Ritz decides to focus on this, I think Rupp will run away with it. He was so strong in this event last year and i imagine he will be even stronger this year. I think Abdi will make the team too.

My intuition tells me the same about Rupp. He's already special and has done phenomenal things but I think he will reach the status of American Record holder in the 10K, and be considered one of our international distance mega-stars, along with Webb, Ritz, Hall, Goucher, Solinsky, Tegankamp, etc. He has the talent, work ethic, the action, the motions, yeah the boy can play, dedication, devotion, turning all the night time into the day. He do the walk of life. Anyway, he's got the best coach for it, other great top runners to work with, and has the WC experience to learn from. He's certainly my favorite for next year's national 10K title. He'll be shattering the collegiate record, maybe even the "foreign born collegians" record, which is close to 27:10 I think.

[lasseviren]

pretty sure the foreign born collegian record is 27:05 by the one and only henry rono. but that's off the top of my head.

even though ritz has his OG spot wrapped up in the 'thon, i think he will focus on getting the 10k. since he was able to do a long enough buildup to run the 2:11 i think he and hudson realize that now he's got a good shot of chasing PRs and the AR in the 10k with the strength he's built. also, i really hope he makes it because i want to see KK run the OG 'thon and dominate like his old self. get two or three americans in the top 10 or higher.

[cmurph]

pretty sure the foreign born collegian record is 27:05 by the one and only henry rono. but that's off the top of my head.

even though ritz has his OG spot wrapped up in the 'thon, i think he will focus on getting the 10k. since he was able to do a long enough buildup to run the 2:11 i think he and hudson realize that now he's got a good shot of chasing PRs and the AR in the 10k with the strength he's built. also, i really hope he makes it because i want to see KK run the OG 'thon and dominate like his old self. get two or three americans in the top 10 or higher.

I don't think Rono ever ran that fast. I thought it was 27:22, so Rupp's not that far off

[jacksparrow34313]

I don't think Rono ever ran that fast. I thought it was 27:22, so Rupp's not that far off
http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_10kok.htm

213 27:22.47 Henry Rono KEN 12.02.52 1 Wien 11.06.1978

That's correct on Rono's PR, I don't know if that's the collegiate record, it says it was run in Vienna. I'll check the collegiate now...

edit: according to T+FNews, Rono's race is the record, although it is listed separately as being a "Mark made outside regular collegiate season." Rupp's mark is the fastest made during the usual season, as far as I can tell.

[Tiocfaidh Ar La]

All of the aformentioned guys will almost certainly run the 10k at the trials. Culpepper said this is his last olympic cycle but he feels he probably has two more years of competitive running in him. People forget he also ran real well at the XC champs this year, i dont think he is done. He also got fourth at the 10k this year.

Torres i dont give much of a shot to making this team, but he COULD surprise. He doesnt have the PR's and accomplishments of many of the others but is still competitive.


I think people are giving Culpepper too much credit for his win in Boulder. Ritzenhein and Goucher basically killed each other and Culpepper picked up the scraps. Had that race been at sea-level, Ritzenhein and Goucher wouldn't have paid such a steep price for their early exuberance. Culpepper really hasn't done a whole lot since 2004.

27:42 for Torres is nothing to sneeze at. He's been kind of AWOL the rest of the year but is always a gamer at Nationals. If I were Mary Wittenberg I'd start saving my paper route money for when this guy decides to run a marathon.

[maverick]

I think people are giving Culpepper too much credit for his win in Boulder. Ritzenhein and Goucher basically killed each other and Culpepper picked up the scraps. Had that race been at sea-level, Ritzenhein and Goucher wouldn't have paid such a steep price for their early exuberance. Culpepper really hasn't done a whole lot since 2004.

27:42 for Torres is nothing to sneeze at. He's been kind of AWOL the rest of the year but is always a gamer at Nationals. If I were Mary Wittenberg I'd start saving my paper route money for when this guy decides to run a marathon.

didnt torres make the world final at 10k a few years ago or am i crazy?

[honkforcookies]

didnt torres make the world final at 10k a few years ago or am i crazy?

He made the 5k final in 2003

[TIGERCROSS 09]

didnt torres make the world final at 10k a few years ago or am i crazy?

he won the national championships in 2006 but there was no worlds or olympics that year. also, culp, ritz and rupp did not run and abdi dropped out with a strained calf muscle. not saying he didn't win it fair and square, but he has very little chance against the top guys, especially the way that guys are dropping 27:40's now days. (shows how far we have to go, sub 27 should be our goal, not 27:40)

[maverick]

He made the 5k final in 2003

that must be it, i knew i saw him in a world final somewhere down the line.

[Tiocfaidh Ar La]

but he has very little chance against the top guys, especially the way that guys are dropping 27:40's now days.

Dude ran 27:42 at Cardinal this year.

[JaredR]

Dude ran 27:42 at Cardinal this year.
Torres always gets forgotten about and lost among the group of awesome runners we have right now. He does his work quietly I guess. He certainly can't be ignored though with a 27:42 and other big credentials. I wouldn't be surprised if he shocks us all in the next year with something huge.

[Achilles]

I think people are giving Culpepper too much credit for his win in Boulder. Ritzenhein and Goucher basically killed each other and Culpepper picked up the scraps. Had that race been at sea-level, Ritzenhein and Goucher wouldn't have paid such a steep price for their early exuberance. Culpepper really hasn't done a whole lot since 2004.

27:42 for Torres is nothing to sneeze at. He's been kind of AWOL the rest of the year but is always a gamer at Nationals. If I were Mary Wittenberg I'd start saving my paper route money for when this guy decides to run a marathon.

Right, he ran 27:42 and lost to culpepper at nationals. I think Torres will do fine, i just dont give him much of a chance to be on the team.

Culp does get a lot of credit for the XC, he ran the best race and deserved to win, ritz ran a VERY foolish race and paid for it but you are right, at sea level ritz probably does not win.

However, Culp kills torres that day anyway, torres got a distant fourth to culps 1st. Culp always races smart and this will most likely be his last attempt at the olympics. He will come ready to roll as usual.

Torres will be in the mix until 15-18 laps i think then will fall off and make some up on the kick as usual. Torres has one of the slowest 5k PR's in the 10k field and there are some guys who made breakthroughs this year that i think will make it before he does.

[Achilles]

I don't see how Hall would not run the marathon, even if he does do well at 10k trials.

duh

Read what Achilles posted.

That post is entirely on the 10k, i never said hall wouldnt do the marathon. He is got to be a top 5 guy if he deals with the heat well in beijing. I dont love the fact that is in beijing but what are u gonna do?

[Tiocfaidh Ar La]

Culp does get a lot of credit for the XC, he ran the best race and deserved to win, ritz ran a VERY foolish race and paid for it but you are right, at sea level ritz probably does not win.



You're helping me prove the point that I was having a hard time articulating.
Some people think Culpepper's win in Boulder was a result of being the old 27:30 Culpepper, but I don't think he was that fit, just wily and smart. He benefited from the mistakes of others. This also helped him place well in Indy but in Eugene it's going to be cool and they're going to rip. He's at least a notch below his best and will be left behind.

[TIGERCROSS 09]

Dude ran 27:42 at Cardinal this year.

thats not what i meant. when you have 15 guys that have run under 28 minutes this year, 27:40 is nothing special anymore.

[KevinM]

thats not what i meant. when you have 15 guys that have run under 28 minutes this year, 27:40 is nothing special anymore.

15 under 28:00?

2007 US top-10
1) Abdi 27:31.46
2) Rupp 27:33.48
3) J. Torres 27:42.91
4) Moran 27:43.13
5) Carney 27:43.64
6) Culpepper 27:50.05
7) Rohatinsky 27:55.86
8) Summerside 28:02.51
9) Shay 28:03.44
10) T. Nelson 28:04.46

[king99]

7......15? whatever it takes

220....221

at the gym or the gun club

[BlackIrish]

15 under 28:00?

2007 US top-10
1) Abdi 27:31.46
2) Rupp 27:33.48
3) J. Torres 27:42.91
4) Moran 27:43.13
5) Carney 27:43.64
6) Culpepper 27:50.05
7) Rohatinsky 27:55.86
8) Summerside 28:02.51
9) Shay 28:03.44
10) T. Nelson 28:04.46

You didn't need to correct him, it was pretty obvious that he was exaggerating.

[mhs-xc]

15 under 28:00?

2007 US top-10
1) Abdi 27:31.46
2) Rupp 27:33.48
3) J. Torres 27:42.91
4) Moran 27:43.13
5) Carney 27:43.64
6) Culpepper 27:50.05
7) Rohatinsky 27:55.86
8) Summerside 28:02.51
9) Shay 28:03.44
10) T. Nelson 28:04.46
sad

[KevinM]

You didn't need to correct him, it was pretty obvious that he was exaggerating.

Sorry, didn't realize exaggerating was taking place. Was he also exaggerating when he said "27:40 is nothing special anymore" or "but he has very little chance against the top guys, especially the way that guys are dropping 27:40's now days."?

I need an interpreter.

[ElHollingsworth]

sad

dont call a brother out on his time like that...

[maverick]

dont call a brother out on his time like that...

i think he was going with "sad that shay is no longer with us"

[wow parkour]

Sorry, didn't realize exaggerating was taking place. Was he also exaggerating when he said "27:40 is nothing special anymore" or "but he has very little chance against the top guys, especially the way that guys are dropping 27:40's now days."?

I need an interpreter.

QFE, tigercross' arguement has no valid points.

[JustRun07]

i think he was going with "sad that shay is no longer with us"

I didn't think there was a need for a tag on that post. Apparently there was.

[ElHollingsworth]

I didn't think there was a need for a tag on that post. Apparently there was.

true dat...

[Achilles]

You're helping me prove the point that I was having a hard time articulating.
Some people think Culpepper's win in Boulder was a result of being the old 27:30 Culpepper, but I don't think he was that fit, just wily and smart. He benefited from the mistakes of others. This also helped him place well in Indy but in Eugene it's going to be cool and they're going to rip. He's at least a notch below his best and will be left behind.

I think you are right and Culp is well past his peak, he is going to be almost 36 next year at the trials. However, he did run his 5k PR only two short years ago and will for the first time completly peak for the 10k at USA's. I think Culp will run pretty well next year, almost certainly wont make the team, but will put together a nice last season or 2nd to last season.

[Tiocfaidh Ar La]

I think you are right and Culp is well past his peak, he is going to be almost 36 next year at the trials. However, he did run his 5k PR only two short years ago and will for the first time completly peak for the 10k at USA's. I think Culp will run pretty well next year, almost certainly wont make the team, but will put together a nice last season or 2nd to last season.

There could be an entirely new thread about why a 5000 PB by a few fractions of a second doesn't mean a whole lot for Culpepper, but otherwise I agree with what you said.

[Quenton Cassidy]

Solinsky
Meb
Withrow or Ritz

[RUNNAKED]

Culpepper will not be a factor.
Rupp will probably be in good enough shape to walk away with it unless ritz decides to really go for it.

Abdi should be comfortable in second but who knows.

Third could be a slew of any other people.

[Achilles]

Culpepper will not be a factor.
Rupp will probably be in good enough shape to walk away with it unless ritz decides to really go for it.

Abdi should be comfortable in second but who knows.

Third could be a slew of any other people.

Why is rupp a favorite over Abdi now? Abdi won EASY last year and has won a few titles in recent memory and besides this marathon has run VERY well of late.

Abdi should as of now be the favorite, Ritz based on his 8:11 and seemingly comfortable move to Eugene should be the favorite for 2nd and Rupp is the big time favorite for 3rd. Those 3 spots are their 3 spots to lose. They seem to be on a different level.

Rupp i dont think is the favorite at all though.

[Slow Runner]

Why is rupp a favorite over Abdi now? Abdi won EASY last year and has won a few titles in recent memory and besides this marathon has run VERY well of late.

Abdi should as of now be the favorite, Ritz based on his 8:11 and seemingly comfortable move to Eugene should be the favorite for 2nd and Rupp is the big time favorite for 3rd. Those 3 spots are their 3 spots to lose. They seem to be on a different level.

Rupp i dont think is the favorite at all though.

Qfe

[ZackCampbell]

Abdi and Rupp.

[Erik van Ingen]

knowing Lopez Lomong's range he could very well run the 10k hahahaha

[xcworldchamp]

BLACK CACTUS FTW

[yifter]

Meb ran 27:4x in brussells this year, guy had a killer 7 week stretch this summer

culp will show up and run to the best of his ability come next summer, the question is, will it be enough?
-i am very biased but he might find a way into the top three, he is clearly on the way down though, any articles from him post race, with more detail than his quotes about what happened out there? not sure he runs faster than 2:12 on his best day anyways
-culp has always said that he is better at the 10k than the 'thon, look it up, '03 wc champs showed him, and all other non-african that they have no chance in a 10k where weather isnt a factor, he and meb sought refuge elsewhere

meb-i hope he makes the 10k team, hopefully he will get back to his roots this spring, xc, 15k, 8k, and get it done in eugene

some guys will be desperate to make one last team

[txboi800]

Solinsky
Meb
Withrow or Ritz
Hmmm....that's going out on a limb right there.

Before this weekend I would have said Abdi was the huge favorite, but the way he ran in the marathon trials didn't impress me. This was a big race obviously, I expected him to perform a lot better. So now I think it's very close between Abdi and Rupp. Ritz if he decides to focus on it obviously should be considered a favorite as well. I don't see Hall running this race at all, as previously stated he likes to disappear for 6 months and get in killer shape, this race would just get in the way of his marathon.

Meb and Culp are wizened old veterans with a ton of experience, but honestly I just think they're too old to keep up with the new, extremely talented crop of guys we've got here now.

If Rupp goes out and runs a PB or two during the spring I could see him taking this race, easily.

[Achilles]

Hmmm....that's going out on a limb right there.

Before this weekend I would have said Abdi was the huge favorite, but the way he ran in the marathon trials didn't impress me. This was a big race obviously, I expected him to perform a lot better. So now I think it's very close between Abdi and Rupp. Ritz if he decides to focus on it obviously should be considered a favorite as well. I don't see Hall running this race at all, as previously stated he likes to disappear for 6 months and get in killer shape, this race would just get in the way of his marathon.

Meb and Culp are wizened old veterans with a ton of experience, but honestly I just think they're too old to keep up with the new, extremely talented crop of guys we've got here now.

If Rupp goes out and runs a PB or two during the spring I could see him taking this race, easily.

Rupp has never done anything "easily" at a championship race. He has NEVER won a big national championship. He won a junior race in the 5k against some good guys and a junior XC race but never an NCAA or HS title in anything. Idk if i will pick 2008 oly trials as his first.

He has a big advantage considering its in eugene. Ritz has by far the best speed, hall the best strength, abdi is probably the best all around.

I think hall will run this race. He said he really wants to get his 5k and 10k pr's down. That would involve him doing a bunch of track races. He has 6 months of training starting very soon until about june-july which is when the trials are and i expect him to be on that line.

[JaredR]

Rupp has never done anything "easily" at a championship race. He has NEVER won a big national championship. He won a junior race in the 5k against some good guys and a junior XC race but never an NCAA or HS title in anything. Idk if i will pick 2008 oly trials as his first.

He has a big advantage considering its in eugene. Ritz has by far the best speed, hall the best strength, abdi is probably the best all around.

I think hall will run this race. He said he really wants to get his 5k and 10k pr's down. That would involve him doing a bunch of track races. He has 6 months of training starting very soon until about june-july which is when the trials are and i expect him to be on that line.
Rupp. And not just because it's in Eugene. Because he knows how to run a 10k like a biotch. Sub 27:20 sometime next year for him. If he's never done anything "big" in a championship race, I'd say it's about time he has a breakthrough there.

[jacksparrow34313]

Rupp. And not just because it's in Eugene. Because he knows how to run a 10k like a biotch. Sub 27:20 sometime next year for him. If he's never done anything "big" in a championship race, I'd say it's about time he has a breakthrough there.
Like he did at NCAAs last year? Oh, wait...

[Achilles]

Rupp. And not just because it's in Eugene. Because he knows how to run a 10k like a biotch. Sub 27:20 sometime next year for him. If he's never done anything "big" in a championship race, I'd say it's about time he has a breakthrough there.

I didnt say he has never done anything big, i said he has never won anything big. His best title was the junior xc race.

He loses a lot of races he really shouldnt, its hard to argue that. Last year that was his 10k to lose, he made a nice move and closed fast but it just wasnt enough. He is the best 10k runner in the college system and was last year too, but he loses a lot of races on kicks or stupid moves. He doesnt make many stupid moves, but at FLN his senior year he didnt listen to salazar and lead almost the entire race/was pushing the entire time.

If he wins ncaa cross, i may change my opinion because that will be a big win. And i wouldnt be surprised at all if he runs 27:15-27:18 or so, I also hope he gets in a fast 5k.

[jacksparrow34313]

I didnt say he has never done anything big, i said he has never won anything big. His best title was the junior xc race.

He loses a lot of races he really shouldnt, its hard to argue that. Last year that was his 10k to lose, he made a nice move and closed fast but it just wasnt enough. He is the best 10k runner in the college system and was last year too, but he loses a lot of races on kicks or stupid moves. He doesnt make many stupid moves, but at FLN his senior year he didnt listen to salazar and lead almost the entire race/was pushing the entire time.

If he wins ncaa cross, i may change my opinion because that will be a big win. And i wouldnt be surprised at all if he runs 27:15-27:18 or so, I also hope he gets in a fast 5k.
And if he does run in that range, that's still only 4-7 seconds faster than Abdi's PR, which in a tactical race means almost nothing.

(not directed at you Achilles) Don't let one bad race lead you to think that Abdi is done. It wasn't too long ago he pushed Haile in the half-marathon, hung onto Bekele, Tadesse, and Sihine for most of the world 10k, and crushed Rupp and Ritz at USATF. He had a bad race at the marathon trials, obviously, but I still think he is a favorite in the 10k. Ritz is also right there, he is right around the same as him for 10k, and is coming off a huge run at the marathon trials. I'd call all three about equal at this point.

[FroshSophXC]

And if he does run in that range, that's still only 4-7 seconds faster than Abdi's PR, which in a tactical race means almost nothing.

(not directed at you Achilles) Don't let one bad race lead you to think that Abdi is done. It wasn't too long ago he pushed Haile in the half-marathon, hung onto Bekele, Tadesse, and Sihine for most of the world 10k, and crushed Rupp and Ritz at USATF. He had a bad race at the marathon trials, obviously, but I still think he is a favorite in the 10k. Ritz is also right there, he is right around the same as him for 10k, and is coming off a huge run at the marathon trials. I'd call all three about equal at this point.

And all equally better than 4th, IMO. It doesn't matter (to me) who wins; it's about qualifying. I'd say it's all three of their race to lose in that respect and I don't see that happening.

[Achilles]

And if he does run in that range, that's still only 4-7 seconds faster than Abdi's PR, which in a tactical race means almost nothing.

(not directed at you Achilles) Don't let one bad race lead you to think that Abdi is done. It wasn't too long ago he pushed Haile in the half-marathon, hung onto Bekele, Tadesse, and Sihine for most of the world 10k, and crushed Rupp and Ritz at USATF. He had a bad race at the marathon trials, obviously, but I still think he is a favorite in the 10k. Ritz is also right there, he is right around the same as him for 10k, and is coming off a huge run at the marathon trials. I'd call all three about equal at this point.

Right, i pretty much agree 100%. I think abdi as of right now has to be the favorite and i think they are all way way better than 4th.

I dont think Abdi really pushed geb in that race but he definitely ran a great race. Geb had that the entire time.

Ritz i think will run VERY well next year and have his best season to date by far. His move to Eugene looks to be going great and he has the most speed so it wouldnt surprise me at all to see him win this race. He needs to run a nice 10k next year, his pr does not indicate how good he is.

I think all three of those guys should run low 27:20's next year at least if they run a hard one. They may not run a hard one though but i think they are all capable of doing that.

[Tiocfaidh Ar La]

(not directed at you Achilles) Don't let one bad race lead you to think that Abdi is done. It wasn't too long ago he pushed Haile in the half-marathon, hung onto Bekele, Tadesse, and Sihine for most of the world 10k, and crushed Rupp and Ritz at USATF. He had a bad race at the marathon trials, obviously, but I still think he is a favorite in the 10k. Ritz is also right there, he is right around the same as him for 10k, and is coming off a huge run at the marathon trials. I'd call all three about equal at this point.

Had Ritzenhein's eyes not rolled up into the back of his head I think he would've had Abdi's number in Indy. The race was playing into the hands of a guy who had recently run 8:11 for 2M. Unfortunately, USATF wanted to save money so all the worthless bureaucrats can stay in suites in Beijing next year so they decided to have USAs in a NASCAR-loving ****hole swamp. I think Ritzenhein was fitter, but he grew up in Michigan and Abdi grew up in Somalia. I'll let you figure out who deals with heat better. DR's wobbling in also opened a door for Rupp that normally wouldn't have been there.
Rupp is a notch below these two but clearly better than whoever is fourth, although there are a couple scenarios I can envision where he gets beat (Culpepper and Meb tear up the AARP cards and run well, Torres rolls the dice midrace and doesn't just kick for the Pan Am team, Rohatinsky takes a large step up, Carney solidifies his run at Cardinal, Hartmann pulls one out for Martin Smith, etc.). It's Rupp's team to blow by getting too excited because the race is in his backyard and he has an O on his chest.

[run_nyc]

I think Ritzenhein was fitter, but he grew up in Michigan and Abdi grew up in Somalia. I'll let you figure out who deals with heat better.

The average temperature in beijing during mid august is in the mid 80's, with a high that usually approaches low 90's. We should send a team with guys who deal with the heat.

[Achilles]

Had Ritzenhein's eyes not rolled up into the back of his head I think he would've had Abdi's number in Indy. The race was playing into the hands of a guy who had recently run 8:11 for 2M. Unfortunately, USATF wanted to save money so all the worthless bureaucrats can stay in suites in Beijing next year so they decided to have USAs in a NASCAR-loving ****hole swamp. I think Ritzenhein was fitter, but he grew up in Michigan and Abdi grew up in Somalia. I'll let you figure out who deals with heat better. DR's wobbling in also opened a door for Rupp that normally wouldn't have been there.
Rupp is a notch below these two but clearly better than whoever is fourth, although there are a couple scenarios I can envision where he gets beat (Culpepper and Meb tear up the AARP cards and run well, Torres rolls the dice midrace and doesn't just kick for the Pan Am team, Rohatinsky takes a large step up, Carney solidifies his run at Cardinal, Hartmann pulls one out for Martin Smith, etc.). It's Rupp's team to blow by getting too excited because the race is in his backyard and he has an O on his chest.

He wont be wearing the O when the trials roll around i dont think. I dont think Ritz was winning that race even if he didnt get dehydrated, Abdi looked pretty easy for that win.

He does have by far the best speed in that race for the most part with the possible exception of hall.

[griep08]

in the '12 olympics watch out for scotty bauhs.

[Tiocfaidh Ar La]

He does have by far the best speed in that race for the most part with the possible exception of hall.

People think Hall is fast because of what he did in HS but his 1500 PB is only .29 faster than Ritzenhein's. Both PBs are 5+ years old though. Ritzenhein has him by a ways over 3K/2M.

[Achilles]

People think Hall is fast because of what he did in HS but his 1500 PB is only .29 faster than Ritzenhein's. Both PBs are 5+ years old though. Ritzenhein has him by a ways over 3K/2M.

right but when has hall really attempted a fast 3k or 2 mile? He is almost even with ritz at 5k so i dont think Halls speed is all that bad

[JaredR]

Like he did at NCAAs last year? Oh, wait...Like he did at the Cardinal invite earlier this year? Oh, wait...

I'm saying he knows how to run a 10k and next season he will finally be able to show what he's made of in major races.

[JaredR]

I didnt say he has never done anything big, i said he has never won anything big. His best title was the junior xc race.

He loses a lot of races he really shouldnt, its hard to argue that. Last year that was his 10k to lose, he made a nice move and closed fast but it just wasnt enough. He is the best 10k runner in the college system and was last year too, but he loses a lot of races on kicks or stupid moves. He doesnt make many stupid moves, but at FLN his senior year he didnt listen to salazar and lead almost the entire race/was pushing the entire time.

If he wins ncaa cross, i may change my opinion because that will be a big win. And i wouldnt be surprised at all if he runs 27:15-27:18 or so, I also hope he gets in a fast 5k.
Hey Achilles. When I made a reply to this ^ quote last night, I don't know why I did. I was tired but had insomnia and what I said in response to your quote hardly even applies to the quote. I barely remember it either and don't know what I was thinking.

[TrackCoach]

I think the 1500, 5k, and 10k teams are going to look very similar to the way they looked this year, although with a few changes depending on what events guys choose to run. 1500 I can see being the same three guys, with Lomong and Lukezic also having a shot, especially if Lagat chooses to only run the 5k. I'd take Lomong over Lukezic, although he could opt out of running on the team because he has a college season, or he may run a different event. In the 5k, I think 1-2 will be the same, but I see Solinsky replacing Goucher. In the 10k, I would predict right now the same three guys who qualified last year, although of course Ritz could decide to run the marathon and mix things up, and one of them might not qualify. The next best guys may be the likes of Goucher, Rohatinksy, McDougal, Meb and Culp, to name a few possibles.

I think you are forgetting Rankin and the Texas kid in the 1500; they have credentials equal to Lomong and Lukezic.

[Achilles]

I think you are forgetting Rankin and the Texas kid in the 1500; they have credentials equal to Lomong and Lukezic.

I think Rankin is in the third tier of 1500 runners. Lagat/Webb are in a class of their own, Lukezic, Lomong, Manzano are in the second tier and then Rankin, Russel Brown, and the rest of the 3:36-3:38 guys are in the next.

[jacksparrow34313]

Like he did at the Cardinal invite earlier this year? Oh, wait...

I'm saying he knows how to run a 10k and next season he will finally be able to show what he's made of in major races.
Those are completely different. He ran well at the Cardinal invite, how the hell does that show he "knows how to run a 10k"? That's a ridiculous statement. That race was a freaking time trial. If you want to prove to me you "know how to run" an event, you gotta freaking win it when the cards are on the table, something he hasn't been able to do yet. After the NCAA 10k, I remember someone posting on here that you should never lead a 10k for the majority of the race unless you are far and away better than anyone else, and in that race, Rupp had been that, and still been unable to win. I'm not saying he's a tactical idiot, but until he wins some big championships, don't talk him up like he's some brilliant tactical mind. "He knows how to run a 10k". What a load of garbage. He is physically built to be amazing at the 10k, that's fantastic. Now let's see him win something.
I think you are forgetting Rankin and the Texas kid in the 1500; they have credentials equal to Lomong and Lukezic.
What I said was, "1500 I can see being the same three guys". I meant the same 3 guys as made up the WC team this year, which includes Manzano (guy from Texas).

[JaredR]

Those are completely different. He ran well at the Cardinal invite, how the hell does that show he "knows how to run a 10k"? That's a ridiculous statement. That race was a freaking time trial. If you want to prove to me you "know how to run" an event, you gotta freaking win it when the cards are on the table, something he hasn't been able to do yet. After the NCAA 10k, I remember someone posting on here that you should never lead a 10k for the majority of the race unless you are far and away better than anyone else, and in that race, Rupp had been that, and still been unable to win. I'm not saying he's a tactical idiot, but until he wins some big championships, don't talk him up like he's some brilliant tactical mind. "He knows how to run a 10k". What a load of garbage. He is physically built to be amazing at the 10k, that's fantastic. Now let's see him win something.

The fact that he ran 27:33 for a college record means nothing to you as far as his ability to run a 10K? I never said that he knows how to "win it with the cards on the table" or any of that crap. He knows how to run a solid 10K and I'm predicting that next year will be the year that he really starts showing people what he is truly capable. A "brilliant tactictal mind"? Never. Never said anything to the effect. So are you of the mindset that Alan Webb doesn't know how to run a good 1500 or mile because he's almost never done it with all the cards on the table? He doesn't know how to run a good 800 or two mile either, even though he broke the American record at it? Is Asafa Powel's WR of 9.74 no big deal because he didn't run it with "all the cards on the table"?

Clarify your stance on the subject and try to do it without being an angy
d!ck. Not to insult you but that's exactly how you come off. Perhaps you can address it as a conversation between two people with similar interests instead of treating like a fight. You're even getting pissed over things that I didn't even say or imply. Take a deep breath before you post your disagreements. I don't even like Galen Rupp. He bugs me. I just think next year is gonna be huge for him.

[Tiocfaidh Ar La]

So are you of the mindset that Alan Webb doesn't know how to run a good 1500 or mile because he's almost never done it with all the cards on the table?


The Olympic Trials and USAs in 2005 and 2007 don't count?

[jacksparrow34313]

The fact that he ran 27:33 for a college record means nothing to you as far as his ability to run a 10K? I never said that he knows how to "win it with the cards on the table" or any of that crap. He knows how to run a solid 10K and I'm predicting that next year will be the year that he really starts showing people what he is truly capable. A "brilliant tactictal mind"? Never. Never said anything to the effect. So are you of the mindset that Alan Webb doesn't know how to run a good 1500 or mile because he's almost never done it with all the cards on the table? He doesn't know how to run a good 800 or two mile either, even though he broke the American record at it? Is Asafa Powel's WR of 9.74 no big deal because he didn't run it with "all the cards on the table"?

Clarify your stance on the subject and try to do it without being an angy
d!ck. Not to insult you but that's exactly how you come off. Perhaps you can address it as a conversation between two people with similar interests instead of treating like a fight. You're even getting pissed over things that I didn't even say or imply. Take a deep breath before you post your disagreements. I don't even like Galen Rupp. He bugs me. I just think next year is gonna be huge for him.
Well I just have trouble understanding what you mean by "knows how to". It seems like a silly statement to me. He knows how to do what exactly? Follow a few pacemakers at a given pace for a while, and then keep running that pace for a while, and then sprint? Just because he's faster than other people doesn't mean crap mentally, which is what you seem to be implying. When you say he "knows how to run" an event, I can only assume you are speaking of tactics, because running a fast time doesn't really mean crap in terms of knowing how to race. I'd say I know just as well as Alan Webb what you want to do to run a fast mile time, I just don't have the physical ability as him. So I really think your statement means nothing. I "know" how to run a fast 10k, it just happens that when I run one, its not nearly as fast as when Galen Rupp does it. My assumptions and such that you are accusing me of making are just me being unable to understand what you mean when you say that, because IMO, that means absolutely nothing. He has the physical ability to run a great 10k, that's all his 27:33 shows me. That has nothing to do with "knowing how to run" a race, IMO.

And angry? Not at all, I have enough things to do that I don't waste as strong an emotion as anger on a message board. If I get a little nasty it's because what you're saying just straight up doesn't make sense, and I'm trying to emphasize my belief that what you're saying doesn't make sense.

[Achilles]

The fact that he ran 27:33 for a college record means nothing to you as far as his ability to run a 10K? I never said that he knows how to "win it with the cards on the table" or any of that crap. He knows how to run a solid 10K and I'm predicting that next year will be the year that he really starts showing people what he is truly capable. A "brilliant tactictal mind"? Never. Never said anything to the effect. So are you of the mindset that Alan Webb doesn't know how to run a good 1500 or mile because he's almost never done it with all the cards on the table? He doesn't know how to run a good 800 or two mile either, even though he broke the American record at it? Is Asafa Powel's WR of 9.74 no big deal because he didn't run it with "all the cards on the table"?

Clarify your stance on the subject and try to do it without being an angy
d!ck. Not to insult you but that's exactly how you come off. Perhaps you can address it as a conversation between two people with similar interests instead of treating like a fight. You're even getting pissed over things that I didn't even say or imply. Take a deep breath before you post your disagreements. I don't even like Galen Rupp. He bugs me. I just think next year is gonna be huge for him.


Winning Ostrava, and Paris, along with that 800 are much different than winning a 10k on the west coast of the US. Webb won more races than he lost last year too, and I STILL dont think webb is that smart tactically. He is like rupp except not in the US, Webb is on the world level of poor tactical runners. Rupp has made mistakes and not beaten college guys, webb has made mistakes and beaten everyone in the US.

Again though, IF rupp wins XC this year, which i dont think he will but he has a good chance than i will change my opinion some and give him a much better shot in my opinion. But until he wins something, even when he is the overwhelming favorite, i cant say he is going to win USA's. Webb didnt win that 2 mile that he had the american record in either. He just broke the AR. Those are all TT events. When Webb wins a tactical race, on the world scene, then he will be a racer. Until then, him and rupp have to learn how to race a little better.

[JaredR]

The Olympic Trials and USAs in 2005 and 2007 don't count?

Sorry man. I didn't mean that. What I meant was that he has performed well in almost no major races. I worded it a bit wrong.

[JaredR]

I know exactly what you guys mean about tactics and both Rupp's and Webb's tactical racing ability in major races. I was never really thinking tactics at all though. I certainly don't think either of them are very good tactical racers.

Captain Sparrow- When I say Galen Rupp "knows how to run a 10K" the only thing I'm talking about is the fact that he has run 27:33 as a 20 year old American. No tactics. No mental superiority. I guess a better way to put it, for you to possibly agree with, would be that he "knows how to run a fast 10K". I certainly realize that his ability to simply run a fast 10K is very unlikely to win him next year's Olympic trials. Believe it or not, I realize that in distance running being fast is not the only credential you need to have in order to truly be a major champion. It's usually part of it though. Also, it certainly takes a little more than only physical ability for an U.S. kid of his age to run 27:33. I don't know for sure because I've never been there but I'd be willing to bet that the mind comes into play just a tad.

[jacksparrow34313]

I know exactly what you guys mean about tactics and both Rupp's and Webb's tactical racing ability in major races. I was never really thinking tactics at all though. I certainly don't think either of them are very good tactical racers.

Captain Sparrow- When I say Galen Rupp "knows how to run a 10K" the only thing I'm talking about is the fact that he has run 27:33 as a 20 year old American. No tactics. No mental superiority. I guess a better way to put it, for you to possibly agree with, would be that he "knows how to run a fast 10K". I certainly realize that his ability to simply run a fast 10K is very unlikely to win him next year's Olympic trials. Believe it or not, I realize that in distance running being fast is not the only credential you need to have in order to truly be a major champion. It's usually part of it though. Also, it certainly takes a little more than only physical ability for an U.S. kid of his age to run 27:33. I don't know for sure because I've never been there but I'd be willing to bet that the mind comes into play just a tad.
I just have a problem with the use of the word "know." That implies to me that it takes some sort of mental superiority to run a really fast race. Sure you've got to be mentally tough to run fast for 25 laps, but all he had to "know" to run that 27:33 was how to pace himself correctly to maximize his abilities, which is something anyone who's been running for a few years as seriously as he does, and has a great coach, and I'm sure something that Abdi and Ritz are equally capable of doing. I overreacted because I misinterpreted what you were saying, but I stand by my position nevertheless.

[xcrunna]

Winning Ostrava, and Paris, along with that 800 are much different than winning a 10k on the west coast of the US. Webb won more races than he lost last year too, and I STILL dont think webb is that smart tactically. He is like rupp except not in the US, Webb is on the world level of poor tactical runners. Rupp has made mistakes and not beaten college guys, webb has made mistakes and beaten everyone in the US.

Again though, IF rupp wins XC this year, which i dont think he will but he has a good chance than i will change my opinion some and give him a much better shot in my opinion. But until he wins something, even when he is the overwhelming favorite, i cant say he is going to win USA's. Webb didnt win that 2 mile that he had the american record in either. He just broke the AR. Those are all TT events. When Webb wins a tactical race, on the world scene, then he will be a racer. Until then, him and rupp have to learn how to race a little better.
Some would argue that it's not that Webb doesn't have good tactics, but rather he's not good at running rounds with strong competition.

[Achilles]

Some would argue that it's not that Webb doesn't have good tactics, but rather he's not good at running rounds with strong competition.

I would agree with that if webb hasnt shown he is VERY strong and can run very fast over long distances. He should be being helped from the rounds because he is a stronger runner. One would think he has enough strength to get through the rounds without much of a problem and then be strong in the finals. Tactically he is just so bad that sometimes he needs to run way way too hard to get into the final.

This year he had to make up a real lot of group on the last lap in the semis. 04 he didnt get in, i give him a pass for that, first international competition like that and he peaked too early. 05 he ran a really really hard semi and then messed up a little in the final tactically with a very stupid move. He is a poor tactical runner right now but damn good and i am excited to see what he does next year.

[JaredR]

I would agree with that if webb hasnt shown he is VERY strong and can run very fast over long distances. He should be being helped from the rounds because he is a stronger runner. One would think he has enough strength to get through the rounds without much of a problem and then be strong in the finals. Tactically he is just so bad that sometimes he needs to run way way too hard to get into the final.

This year he had to make up a real lot of group on the last lap in the semis. 04 he didnt get in, i give him a pass for that, first international competition like that and he peaked too early. 05 he ran a really really hard semi and then messed up a little in the final tactically with a very stupid move. He is a poor tactical runner right now but damn good and i am excited to see what he does next year.
Good assessment and I agree that Webb shouldn't have a problem running the rounds (but who knows?). The thing that baffles me the most is how Webb spent his season turning on the rockets and blasting by everyone in the final stretch, doing it to Lagat more than anyone, but Webb could do nothing of the sort at WC's while Lagat was the one blasting by everyone in the final straight with Webb just fading badly.

I don't know a lot about different racing tactics but Webb's performance (including the previous round) will always confuse me a bit.

[JaredR]

Rohatinsky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll have to second that. I think I'm the biggest advocate, fan, and un-official spokesperson for Josh Rohatinsky here on the Dyestat boards. He's my running idol and has been for over 10 years. I've seen him do so many amazing and unbelievable things over the years and there's no way I'll ever stop believing in the guy.

If he runs the 10K, he's absolutely a contender for an olympic team spot. I could never put limits on what he's capable of. I certainly think he's gonna surprise all of us and there's no reason for me not to believe that. The Cardinal Invite where he ran 27:55 was his first "elite" 10K and it was only half elite. Put him in a real elite race, against all the best in the country, and I think he'll have a lot more to show us. Kind of like when he was put against every one of the best college runners in the U.S. and found his way to the front.

ROHAT Beijing '08!

[Tiocfaidh Ar La]

I'll have to second that. I think I'm the biggest advocate, fan, and un-official spokesperson for Josh Rohatinsky here on the Dyestat boards. He's my running idol and has been for over 10 years. I've seen him do so many amazing and unbelievable things over the years and there's no way I'll ever stop believing in the guy.

If he runs the 10K, he's absolutely a contender for an olympic team spot. I could never put limits on what he's capable of. I certainly think he's gonna surprise all of us and there's no reason for me not to believe that. The Cardinal Invite where he ran 27:55 was his first "elite" 10K and it was only half elite. Put him in a real elite race, against all the best in the country, and I think he'll have a lot more to show us. Kind of like when he was put against every one of the best college runners in the U.S. and found his way to the front.

ROHAT Beijing '08!

http://shop.libida.com/images/products/dvds_h/NH_guide_fellatio_2107.jpg

[wow parkour]

I'll have to second that. I think I'm the biggest advocate, fan, and un-official spokesperson for Josh Rohatinsky here on the Dyestat boards. He's my running idol and has been for over 10 years. I've seen him do so many amazing and unbelievable things over the years and there's no way I'll ever stop believing in the guy.

If he runs the 10K, he's absolutely a contender for an olympic team spot. I could never put limits on what he's capable of. I certainly think he's gonna surprise all of us and there's no reason for me not to believe that. The Cardinal Invite where he ran 27:55 was his first "elite" 10K and it was only half elite. Put him in a real elite race, against all the best in the country, and I think he'll have a lot more to show us. Kind of like when he was put against every one of the best college runners in the U.S. and found his way to the front.

ROHAT Beijing '08!

Are you his brother?

[JaredR]

Are you his brother?

Strange that you ask. It said "I am not Jared Rohatinsky" in my signiture for like two years and I just removed it from my sig. last week because I didn't think I'd get asked again. ha! I hadn't been asked in at least a year before now.

[Prince]

One thing I know for sure is that Teg will not race.

[ElHollingsworth]

One thing I know for sure is that Teg will not race.

he doesnt run the 10k? :confused:

[Tiocfaidh Ar La]

One thing I know for sure is that Teg will not race.

he doesnt run the 10k? :confused:

Please kick each other in the nuts and stop mindlessly repeating what was an immediately pathetic and annoying joke.

Have a nice day.

[thor!]

Guys, don't joke about Teg like that, cnick is not pleased.

http://talk.dyestat.com/showpost.php?p=2205100&postcount=14684

Hah! but seriously...Teg? 10k? :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

[TrackCoach]

Your top 3 will be guys (-if necessary) capable of running a 27:30x pace with enough left in the tank to kick the last 600. There are only 3 guys for sure in that category, Ritz, Abdi and Rupp. Obviously if one of these guys falters, Meb, Culpepper, Browne, Torres, Fam will be there to pick up the pieces. Guys like, Rohatinsky, Carney, Hartman, Dobson and Moran are racing for PRs.

Some interesting thoughts, Meb had some good performances at shorter distances this year which suggest he could probably mix it up with Ritz, Abdi and Rupp, but at his age he may be more interested in one more big marathon pay day. The other top marathoners Limo, Geb, Tegat, Rop and Lel, etc. will be focusing on the Olympics. If you did not make your nation’s Olympic team, ’08 is good year to put your total focus on winning a major. I am convinced Hall can run a good 10K; he ran close to a 4- minute mile as teenager and he is America’s top half marathoner and marathoner. It is very difficult to believe that our top half marathoner and marathoner is not one of our top 10K guys as well. Btw - In 2000, the best 10K time was 27:46, the U.S. now has about 15 guys capable of running faster than that…amazing how times have changed. Based on Ritz’s 2-mie and 3k time this year tells me could probably make the 5K top three as well.

A separate issue: The SC going is going to be a dog fight, if Lincoln is ready to run, this race is his to lose, but the other spots are up in the air between Steve Slattery, Brian Olinger, Aaron Aguayo, Josh McAdams and Famiglietti. Is Tim Broe retired?

In the 1500, Lagat and Webb is the class of the field, but between Manzano, Lukezic and Lopez Lomong, I can not say who that third spot would go to. Krummenacker, Rankin, Nick Symmonds, Said Ahmed, Rob Myers, Gabe Jennings and Bobby Curtis could be in the mix for that 3rd spot as well.

[TrackCoach]

I'll have to second that. I think I'm the biggest advocate, fan, and un-official spokesperson for Josh Rohatinsky here on the Dyestat boards. He's my running idol and has been for over 10 years. I've seen him do so many amazing and unbelievable things over the years and there's no way I'll ever stop believing in the guy.

If he runs the 10K, he's absolutely a contender for an olympic team spot. I could never put limits on what he's capable of. I certainly think he's gonna surprise all of us and there's no reason for me not to believe that. The Cardinal Invite where he ran 27:55 was his first "elite" 10K and it was only half elite. Put him in a real elite race, against all the best in the country, and I think he'll have a lot more to show us. Kind of like when he was put against every one of the best college runners in the U.S. and found his way to the front.

ROHAT Beijing '08!


Anything is possible, but this year is too deep for Rohatinsky to have a shot at a spot. In fact, outside of Ritz/Rup/Abdi I would put Torres, Fam, Culpepper and Meb ahead of Rohatinsky. Like I said, anything is possible, but it is not likely. 2012 will be Rohatinsky's chance as guys like Fam/Culpepper/Meb/Browne will have probably moved on, and Abdi and Torres will be in twlight of their careers.

[X HERES2LIFE C]

killed it

[JaredR]

Anything is possible, but this year is too deep for Rohatinsky to have a shot at a spot. In fact, outside of Ritz/Rup/Abdi I would put Torres, Fam, Culpepper and Meb ahead of Rohatinsky. Like I said, anything is possible, but it is not likely. 2012 will be Rohatinsky's chance as guys like Fam/Culpepper/Meb/Browne will have probably moved on, and Abdi and Torres will be in twlight of their careers.

Exactly. Anything is possible. Outside of Ritz/Rupp/Abdi or whoever the extreme favorites are, we never know what the rest of the guys in the current chasing pack are doing to get ready for it, and what they will be capable of it when the trials come. Rohat and several others thrown into this convo are by no means finished PR'ing in the 10K. Some of them will most likely PR by 30 seconds between now and the trials.

A separate issue: The SC going is going to be a dog fight, if Lincoln is ready to run, this race is his to lose, but the other spots are up in the air between Steve Slattery, Brian Olinger, Aaron Aguayo, Josh McAdams and Famiglietti. Is Tim Broe retired?

Does nobody here really pay attention to Josh McAdams? I don't want to seem like I'm talking him up just because I'm from Utah, like I do so much for Rohat, but nobody seems to notice how good he is. It's not like he keeps it a secret though. People just don't pay enough attention to him and people forget about him. He's been the top steeplechaser in the U.S. for two years. When he ran NCAA's, nobody paid attention, but he crushed everyone in the final laps of the race. A year later, people had forgotten about him when he was running U.S. nationals. He proceeded to run brilliantly and crush the field in the final lap, flying by and burying Lincoln. He took 2nd at Pre Classic this year to Paul Koech, of all Steeplers. 2nd at Stanford to Mircea Bogdon I believe. Won the Pan-Am games. Went to Osaka and was the only one of the three steeplers to run a race even worth a turd, and would've advanced to the finals if it weren't for the slightest of toe-clippings on the final hurdle, sending him almost to the ground. He challenged the Kenyan, Ethiopian, and Morrocan runner in his heat, all with PR's 15-20 secs. faster, and he ran completely unintimidated by them, even passing them in the final lap in a strong bid to win his heat. He's got more confidence and more balls than almost any U.S. distance guy right now. If he'd made the final, he was prepared to run 8:15 or better. Even if he had won bronze in Osaka, he would probably be a forgotten man again by next season.

McAdams shouldn't be considered for one of the "up in the air" spots. McAdams is a lock for the Olympic team, almost as much as you can say Ritz/Rupp are in the 10K. Aguayo has nothing on him right now. If Lincoln, Slattery, and Famiglietti are all at their best, it could be tough but it doesn't really matter how many of them are at their best. McAdams should be considered maybe the #2 contender going in. Also, he very well might prove he has the fastest mile speed of any of the steeplers next season. If you look at what he's done in the past two years, and the balls that he's done it with, he's unquestionably a favorite to make the team, and if he can duplicate the way he's competed over the past two seasons, he will absolutely make the Olympic team. IMHO of course...

I'm calling it now and I'll bring this post back when it happens. Sorry to be so long-winded. I guess I got carried away.

[jacksparrow34313]

Exactly. Anything is possible. Outside of Ritz/Rupp/Abdi or whoever the extreme favorites are, we never know what the rest of the guys in the current chasing pack are doing to get ready for it, and what they will be capable of it when the trials come. Rohat and several others thrown into this convo are by no means finished PR'ing in the 10K. Some of them will most likely PR by 30 seconds between now and the trials.

You're fine until the last sentence. If one of the competitive guys with an outside chance of making the team improves by 30 seconds, I'd be surprised. That's a big improvement!

[Tiocfaidh Ar La]

I guess I got carried away.

This appears to be a habit.

[yifter]

Exactly. Anything is possible. Outside of Ritz/Rupp/Abdi or whoever the extreme favorites are, we never know what the rest of the guys in the current chasing pack are doing to get ready for it, and what they will be capable of it when the trials come. Rohat and several others thrown into this convo are by no means finished PR'ing in the 10K. Some of them will most likely PR by 30 seconds between now and the trials.



Does nobody here really pay attention to Josh McAdams? I don't want to seem like I'm talking him up just because I'm from Utah, like I do so much for Rohat, but nobody seems to notice how good he is. It's not like he keeps it a secret though. People just don't pay enough attention to him and people forget about him. He's been the top steeplechaser in the U.S. for two years. When he ran NCAA's, nobody paid attention, but he crushed everyone in the final laps of the race. A year later, people had forgotten about him when he was running U.S. nationals. He proceeded to run brilliantly and crush the field in the final lap, flying by and burying Lincoln. He took 2nd at Pre Classic this year to Paul Koech, of all Steeplers. 2nd at Stanford to Mircea Bogdon I believe. Won the Pan-Am games. Went to Osaka and was the only one of the three steeplers to run a race even worth a turd, and would've advanced to the finals if it weren't for the slightest of toe-clippings on the final hurdle, sending him almost to the ground. He challenged the Kenyan, Ethiopian, and Morrocan runner in his heat, all with PR's 15-20 secs. faster, and he ran completely unintimidated by them, even passing them in the final lap in a strong bid to win his heat. He's got more confidence and more balls than almost any U.S. distance guy right now. If he'd made the final, he was prepared to run 8:15 or better. Even if he had won bronze in Osaka, he would probably be a forgotten man again by next season.

McAdams shouldn't be considered for one of the "up in the air" spots. McAdams is a lock for the Olympic team, almost as much as you can say Ritz/Rupp are in the 10K. Aguayo has nothing on him right now. If Lincoln, Slattery, and Famiglietti are all at their best, it could be tough but it doesn't really matter how many of them are at their best. McAdams should be considered maybe the #2 contender going in. Also, he very well might prove he has the fastest mile speed of any of the steeplers next season. If you look at what he's done in the past two years, and the balls that he's done it with, he's unquestionably a favorite to make the team, and if he can duplicate the way he's competed over the past two seasons, he will absolutely make the Olympic team. IMHO of course...

I'm calling it now and I'll bring this post back when it happens. Sorry to be so long-winded. I guess I got carried away.

Maybe you missed Lincoln's AR in 2006.

Woulda coulda shoulda on the 8:15 thing. He ran what 8:30s in his heat? Go look at the all time list for US SC. It gets very elite, very quickly below 8:15. When he runs it, he runs it. 8:21 is not the best SC the past two years. He is a favorite no doubt but people "overlook" him for good reason. The SC was far and away the weakest event this year.

Lincoln's best days may be behind him, but he had a really good run from 04-06. Give credit where it is due.

[ElHollingsworth]

Please kick each other in the nuts and stop mindlessly repeating what was an immediately pathetic and annoying joke.

Have a nice day.

joke?

[JaredR]

You're fine until the last sentence. If one of the competitive guys with an outside chance of making the team improves by 30 seconds, I'd be surprised. That's a big improvement!
Damn right that would be a big improvement. I'm not sure about several of the others but Rohatinsky had a 43 second PR this year, and he was already pretty dang good. How about a friendly bet that there will be a 30+ second improvement by at least one guy who might be considered a top ten contender right now. It's not unrealistic at all to think Ryan Hall could PR in the 10K by 30+ seconds if he decides he wants a fast tune-up and gets it right, even though he won't be running it in Beijing if he takes top three.

[JaredR]

Maybe you missed Lincoln's AR in 2006.

Woulda coulda shoulda on the 8:15 thing. He ran what 8:30s in his heat? Go look at the all time list for US SC. It gets very elite, very quickly below 8:15. When he runs it, he runs it. 8:21 is not the best SC the past two years. He is a favorite no doubt but people "overlook" him for good reason. The SC was far and away the weakest event this year.

Lincoln's best days may be behind him, but he had a really good run from 04-06. Give credit where it is due.
Whoa, wait a minute man. Give credit where credit is due? I know he's the American Record holder and that it's a very strong American record. I'm not taking anything away from him. I'm not saying anything negative about any individual runner. Giving credit where credit is due would mean giving a lot more to McAdams. No, 8:21 is not the fastest time of the past two years at all or even this year. When I said two years I was WAY OFF, thinking Lincoln ran the record in 05. However, there is no question of the fact that McAdams is the best U.S. steepler of 2007. He ran 8:30ish in a heat that he almost won, against a Kenyan with a PR over 20 seconds faster than his, similiar to the Ethiopian and Morrocan in his heat. He took the lead in the final lap, intending to win the heat, only to tap his toe on the final hurdle and stumble to a near-walking pace before regaining composure. Anyone who has actually seen that race can not deny that he is very much FOR REAL and should be taken quite seriously. The 8:15 is just the time he was training for and planned on being able to throw out. Personally, I have no doubt he will hit 8:15 and below next year, barring injury. You just have to pay attention to the guy, trust me. If you watched him win NCAA's, watched him win U.S. nationals, and actually watched him run his heat at worlds, you'd see that he's got a ton going for him. Lincoln, Slattery, Broe, and Fam are all phenomenal. I'm a fan of them all. It doesn't matter the reason though, none were better than McAdams this year. They may have been before, but this year McAdams is the best the U.S. had. Like I said, McAdams ran with more confidence and more guts than almost all of the U.S. distance guys in Osaka.

I've seen the U.S. list which he is currently 23rd all time on, and he's been rocketing up that list. I've seen that the list gets pretty elite, and pretty dang fast just a few spots up. What few realize is that he is absolutely prepared to join those elite. Barring injury, I really stake my reputation on him running 8:15 next year and representing the U.S. very well in the Olympics. Bring this post back on me if it doesn't happen! I'm bringin it back if it does! The guy is a late-blooming superstar and he's proven that with few paying attention.
IMO, of course, but McAdams has done more than enough for me to form my opinion. I give attention where it's due. Hopefully others will do the same for McAdams because it's certainly due. I'm not arguing, I'm just believing what I've seen and I'm a passionate fan. I just wish a few more people would take him seriously and realize that he's dead serious, and capable, of running well in the Olympic final.

This is all speculation and prediction. It's all about having fun being a fan of the sport for me. I'm an optimist and I enjoy it. It usually pays off to be so.