State Predictions Class A

[bwags15]

What about the Class A predicitions? All I've heard about is AA. Let's see some predictions for Class A!!! I think that it's pretty much in the air, anyone could win it, but if i had to pick someone, I'd have to say Staples. I'm sure they'll be tough to beat.

[KenA55]

Word is that Aderman will be attending one of the St. Cloud area schools; his mother took a job there.

[menz33]

I'd say Staples isn't going to do quite as well this year after losing Huebsch and Aderman. Going off last year's results, Warroad is looking like it's in the best shape, along with Cathedral, Blue Earth, Lourdes, Hinckley-Finlayson, and Fairmont. Those teams lost the fewest seniors from last season. Also, Pine Island and La Crescent had pretty good seasons in track, don't know if all their guys run cross or not, but if they do they could be tough as well. I wouldn't count out Perham, I've been making soon-to-be-sophmore Kevin Lachowitzer run with David Krueger and I this summer, so I'd look for him to be close to the top end of finishers this year. My old team excluded, I'd put my money on either Warroad.

[naillij]

does anyone have any educated predictions for some girls? class A? hm? opinions would be interesting too...?

[Warrior Runner]

With Calabrese out of the way I think Nikki Swenson will be back at the top along with Beth Tacl and Bria Wetsch who my mind are no doubt the top 3 runners in Class A. They all work incredibly hard and barring injury the three of them should have great fall seasons. Also, all three Blakers are back so they should be fun to watch.

[Cheese Puff]

I'd give Wetsch the pre-season #1 pick.

[sidekick21]

I know I may be biased because she's such an amazing person, but who can forget about Hannah Landecker. I would have to say she's a mega hard worker....along with the top already named. Libby Zupanc could be good as well. For guys...i really don't know what to say except Warroad should be good. Its kind of a toss up... any other ideas?

[Warrior Runner]

thanks for mentioning Zupanc...i didn't wanna be totally cathedral biased but Libby and Beth are both incredibly hard workers and two of the nicest girls and i hope libby has an awesome year because it seems like something always happens to her at the end of the year.

[sidekick21]

Hey again...I agree. Warrior where do u go to school??? Yeah. Libby hopefully will do great. Again hannah landecker, alos courtney robinson a up and comer. I also may have favorite friends lol...anyway, cathedral girls. Blake girls. And wetsch and swenson should be good. Wut about guys???

Peace out

[Warrior Runner]

I go to St John's now and I went to a small hs near Willmar that no one has ever heard of...I would really like to see Wetsch have a great season cuz I know she's way faster than the times she runs (*in the nicest possible way*)...I went to a running camp with a couple of crusaders back in the day (libby and beth being two of them) and i've met several others since then and i guess i'm a big cathedral fan...sidekick where do you go to school?

[sidekick21]

Warrior- I do go to Cathedral. Just wondering... a teammate of mine went to the St. Johns camp i think it was last week. His name being Danny Allen... just wondering if you knew he was there. I think some girl members went. Anyway, yeah...

[Phil Richert]

Warrior- I do go to Cathedral. Just wondering... a teammate of mine went to the St. Johns camp i think it was last week. His name being Danny Allen... just wondering if you knew he was there. I think some girl members went. Anyway, yeah...

I have a very strong feeling that you are Rob Aderman

[sartell]

I really don't think the last few staples teams have been that great. Class A does not have the depth and strong contending teams that it used to 10 years ago, when you'd always have SPA, Sartell, Canby, Cathedral, and Fairmont up there. Lack of Class A depth will, unfortunately, spell another win for Staples. Challenge for Warroad, Cathedral, and others!

[runner4life11]

This is in reply to what SARTELL posted earlier. It sounds like you are one of those runners who come on here and try to rip on Class A teams, but for what reason? Is it because you are sour about Sartell being moved to AA where they haven't done anything for the past how many seasons. I don't remember if you recall, but it wasn't too long ago that Staples won state and started their dynasty with 4 runners in the 16's and the 5th in the low 17's. That would be a pretty good team in any class. Look at Eveleth/Gilbert last year. If you are talking about depth then take a look at staples again for the past four seasons and what about St. Cloud Cathedral. They are always up there.

P.S. Even if Sartell was Class A, getting beat by the small private school from St. Cloud means that their chances at state wouldn't have been much better.

[KenA55]

Not to mention that Staples did what they did/does what they do with a boys squad of 10-20 guys total, 6th-12th grade. This year they're much closer to that 10 figure than 20. Last year was their worst finish under the current coaching regime; that's a ten year span of results now to look at, ten state meets, 7 state championships, three of those championships on a level that fit into an all-class top 15 state team performance measure I posted up in an earlier great team thread. That's a pretty elite group of post-1990 three-timers or more on that list; Duluth East girls, Minnetonka girls, Stillwater boys, Wayzata boys, Staples-Motley boys. End of list.

And their girls program went from one that never fielded a complete team to one that contends annually, with a championship under the belt as well. I like what I'm seeing in class A- Last year's near even matchup on the girls side overall with AA; the competitive ascent of teams in section 7A overall is very remarkable; new A powers like Perham springing up and contending each year. Those same lists I referred to indicate some sag perhaps in team performance both genders, both classes in the early part of this decade but I think we're in for an upswing and both classes added at least one team to that list last year, two AA teams and one A team, you never know but I think we'll probably see at least one MN team from class A do that again this year, Blake girls probably the most likely candidate.

[TNG]

Ken does a good job of stating the issues around the Staples program. Ultimately, whether you agree or disagree with Mattila's philosophy, you can't overlook the success he has had. He motivates and challenges athletes to take the harder path. He and Wagner, E-G caoch, go back a long way, back when Gene thought cross was for skinny guys too scared to play football. To both of their credits they are willing to transport and facilitate their athletes particpation in USATF summer meets. So is the success of their programs, a function of the small talent pool they have to draw from or that they find ways to get athletes to push themselves a little farther than they thought they could and then repeat?

[KenA55]

Or a much heavier emphasis on track in many of the AA schools. Many of the A athletes are 3-sporters. They don't prepare for track like they do for cross, because there is no offseason going into track to prepare during. They're busy with basketball and such. The A girls' cross performances are what they were. Tholen went what, 6th or something at state but 3rd at Griak. Those A girls running ahead of her at state would have been competitive with any AA cross runner last year outside of Yetzer and Grinaker. They didn't have that kind of national-calibre standout among their group, but behind that were a pretty good matchup, much better than any recent previous year. You could see this coming prior to last year, I posted as much then, and we butted heads over it a little even back then. Track times are just that, track times- a different sport, a different season, often different coaching, and very different motivation to train (or not) going into the track season in many cases. It's winter, for crying out loud. And indoor facilities are few and far between, outstate.

This isn't a knock on the AA girls cross performances last year. The A girls simply had a peak year unlike anything we've seen in the past decade or so. And as a result their top 25 simply were a good match for the AA top 25 last year, though of course the AA depth would have overwhelmed them as you get out beyond that level.

A#6 Tholen's finish at Griak was a few seconds superior to AA#7 Schwitzer and AA#5 Wyffel's races at Griak, and lo and behold the comparison across the A to AA races at state is a near carbon copy of what happened at Griak.
They A girls were simply on that same level, and deserve to have that fact recognized rather than dismissed because of results later in a different sport.
As a group they were that good, there's simply no two ways about it.

[TNG]

Just for the sake of throwing something out, neither Cheever or Senf competed in X-C. Both had impressive state track meets and one could argue contributed significantly (Cheever more than Senf) to the strategic pace of the event. On the other hand removing them from the race by no means suggests Yetzer still does not go sub 4:50.

[YellowBand!]

Or a much heavier emphasis on track in many of the AA schools. Many of the A athletes are 3-sporters. They don't prepare for track like they do for cross, because there is no offseason going into track to prepare during. They're busy with basketball and such. The A girls' cross performances are what they were. Tholen went what, 6th or something at state but 3rd at Griak. Those A girls running ahead of her at state would have been competitive with any AA cross runner last year outside of Yetzer and Grinaker. They didn't have that kind of national-calibre standout among their group, but behind that were a pretty good matchup, much better than any recent previous year. You could see this coming prior to last year, I posted as much then, and we butted heads over it a little even back then. Track times are just that, track times- a different sport, a different season, often different coaching, and very different motivation to train (or not) going into the track season in many cases. It's winter, for crying out loud. And indoor facilities are few and far between, outstate.

This isn't a knock on the AA girls cross performances last year. The A girls simply had a peak year unlike anything we've seen in the past decade or so. And as a result their top 25 simply were a good match for the AA top 25 last year, though of course the AA depth would have overwhelmed them as you get out beyond that level.

A#6 Tholen's finish at Griak was a few seconds superior to AA#7 Schwitzer and AA#5 Wyffel's races at Griak, and lo and behold the comparison across the A to AA races at state is a near carbon copy of what happened at Griak.
They A girls were simply on that same level, and deserve to have that fact recognized rather than dismissed because of results later in a different sport.
As a group they were that good, there's simply no two ways about it.


Well put Mr. Anderson. As an outstate product of Class 1A, my primary focus (due to other activitiies and not being able to put in the summer mileage) was to use the cross-country season as a base-builder for the upcoming track season. As aside, I just wasn't really into cross-country. When the track season came around, I ran quite a bit faster than my peers in Class 2A.

[psa]

Results from Morris invitational
Monday August 29th

Boys Varsity

Perham 53
LPGE 86
Marshalll 93
CML 175
Sauk Centre 182

Girls Varsity

Marshall 36
Perham 57
Sauk Centre 114
CML 151
Paynesville 157

[KenA55]

Pat, the two classes in '03 raced in a manner that seemed to put 11 A girls on AA all-state level. That already looked like a large improvement over prior seasons- and all but 1 of those was returning as compared to AA who was about to graduate 1/3 of those top 25. Furthermore, that group of 11 didn't include Calabrese or Wetsch who would certainly crack that level in a better year. And sure enough they did, in '04. I'm not suggesting A top 25 would have won a 'border war' with AA top 25. Just that if such a race was an annual event, and scored out through all 50 places, '04 would have been the closest year ever. Beyond dispute, IMO. Let's face it, there have been years when A would have had a tough time placing even 5 in the AA top 25 girls state meet. So- in all likelihood there has never been a year since the two classes split where A girls were as strong in comparison to AA. They would have given them a race last year, head to head through the top 25. It wouldn't have been a complete blowout.

And for the most part- with exceptions of course because this is a sweeping generalization absolutely- you will not see top MN runners match the best track times of runners they beat in cross, from some other states where indoor seasons are held and winters are much more moderate. Heath makes a very good example. Similarly, and with similar exceptions because this again in a sweeping generalization- more often than not you will not see A runners putting up track times to rival those in AA they matched up with head to head on the cross courses.

Track time comparisons across the classes, as a generalization, just doesn't hold up against cross head to head results on average, among many top runners. Knowing that, it makes the track comparisons across the classes worse than anecdotal- because you're stacking the deck. Like it or not, a good many A runners don't give track anywhere near the same emphasis as cross.

[KenA55]

LPGE's my pick for 6A runner-up. But it will take a good performance to insure that, could be a close battle for that spot.

[TNG]

Pat - I stand corrected regarding Cheever, I assumed and we all know what that means.... I am guessing she was FT Soccer and PT X-C ergo she probably could have placed higher w/o the soccer. Bottom line, all of the great work in analyzing Ken, you, and others do I believe that unless it is based on head to head competition and/or at some point results in head to head, the strategies and characteristics of each race by nature make the comparisons between A & AA pretty anecdotal.

[TNG]

On last thought, from me for now, on this is that "A" athletes that make state in cross are on a more equal footing with the "AA" athletes regarding oportunity to put in the work needed to have their best race at state . All summer and most of the fall weather is not a factor in ability to train. In track however 4-6 "A" vs " 0-4 AA runners (Both SWAGs) will compete at the state meet where weather cut 2 or more weeks out of their competitive season. Anecdotally, 1986 District 27 Meet postponed on May 22 - 6" of snow morning of the meet, 29 Deg F at 3 PM and standing water in the long jump pit. Probably the bigger issue though is being able to get on your track in March, early April, some most of April, w/o putting on the bunny boots and firing up the toro.

[KenA55]

I'm quite certain that if you were to hand out a survey to all of the cross all-staters, boys and girls, both classes, with just one question-
Which applies best to you?
A. I Don't do track
B. Winter base, LOL, ya right!
C. I train with more summer base miles than winter
D1. I train with about the same summer and winter base
D2. What do you mean, base? I don't run offseason at all, either season.
E. I train with more winter base than summer base

And you assigned points to each class according to the answers, awarding greater points for equal or greater track emphasis in the answers, according to the following scale:
A=0
B=1
C=2
Either D=3
E=4

Total class AA points would always beat total class A points, and you'd have much more A's & B's coming out of class A for various reasons mentioned above. That's a large part of why it's fairly common to see comparable cross runners in the two different classes look much different from one another in track. Add coaching emphasis, harsh northern winter weather, limited outstate indoor training facilities, a greater percentage of winter sports athletes who also run distance in class A (I'm excluding the nordic skiers here), etc., and that adds up to a less prepared class A field as opposed to AA, in general, for the spring track season.

[TNG]

And for good measure throw in some of the classic cinder/gravel/grass tracks still being used up north. For me personally I can't break the tie between Eveleth with the 90 degree corners and 4 straight-aways or Ely with the big pine tree at the finish line that needs to be pruned every year just so lanes 4 and 5 don't get decapitated 3 steps passed the finish line. If they still run the 200 on the straight-away I will give the nod to Ely otherwise its a tie.

[sartell]

If you actually read it, you would see that i was not ripping on class A. I ran class A and always think that it is underrated. I am saying that because of LACK of DEPTH of other opposing teams to staples, they will win titles that perhaps they wouldn't have won in the early 90's when DEPTH of teams were greater.

[TNG]

Pat - I believe you are saying you are not convinced A girls would have been close to AA girls in the same cross race last year. What about the "A" athletes at the state meet vs. "AA" athletes.

Competitively closer in cross or track based on yout insight and what has been stated.

[KenA55]

This is all unconvincing to me. There are many Class A schools in the southern part of the state, too, including in the Twin Cities, Mankato, Rochester, St. Cloud, etc... I would bet that their standard of living is close, on average, to that of kids attending the AA schools.
Class AA girls had their best year ever in distance track events and it was mostly from the same girls who were in cross country, just like it is every year. Even if the Class A girls had a good year, too, you'll not convince me that they would have given AA a run for their money if they had all been in the same gigantic meet. Most likely, they would have come in at a ratio close to 2.5:1. That is, 25 Class AA to 10 Class A, give or take about 3 or 4. Not 25 to 25 or even 25 to 20.

During '05 track season I'd be in absolute agreement with you. '04 cross season no way. These girls went head to head in many of the same meets and there's simply no closing the eyes to haw they were more competitive across classes in cross. Somewhere in the 16-20 range IMO would have broke up the AA top 25's level in that hypothetical class meet. And that's very good.

I don't understand the standard of living remark, though. How would that affect a determined competitor even if there was a measurable difference? I don't believe class a schools have less sports participation as a percentage of student body size, if anything a higher percentage than AA would be my guess. So standard of living, even if there is a significant difference, doesn't seem to put a damper on that.

[KenA55]

They're not disadvantaged by the fact that they have greater opportunity to compete on the varsity level in a winter sport (again we're not talking nordic skiing here), for example- but it generally means they're not out running. It means greater advantage overall in general- in terms of ability to participate- though it certainly does mean you aren't putting your track season in a top priority mode.

Classic example- J. Brever would be about nothing but basketball until the section championship for sure and on through the state tourney as well half his hs years. Then he would take a week or two off of everything, missing the season opening track meet. Then he would start to run and maybe open his season sometime in April with a ten-flat at best, work it down to maybe 9:32 by state. While a comparable runner in the state meet earlier that fall season, Gustafson from Owatonna, is racing 14 seconds faster in the deuce, and Schneider who was some 11 sec better than him in the state cross 5k is suddenly over 30 seconds better than him in the duece in the spring.

I'm surprised that you could have possibly missed this recurring theme in A to AA track comparisons vs. cross and somehow never wondered why it is. The notion that the A race at state xc is simply always tactically faster paced for the runners overall and the AA runners go out slow is ludicrous. It isn't always that way- and yet more often than not, year after year, AA to A even matches in cross, head to head in the same race, are a long ways from even on the track in the spring. For a number of various reasons many more A runners come into the track season with absolutely no preparation than in AA. Often by choice. If you were to take some of these individuals aside and put the question to them, why they don't give track the emphasis they give cross when it comes to offseason preparation, in many cases they'd wonder why you would even ask such a silly question. I can imagine the answers. "Because it's winter out there, for God's sake. Because it's about basketball, running's just a team thing with my bud's, and track isn't a team thing. Track is about the football coach keeping his players in shape and he doesn't really care that much about the distance corps. Because it's only track- it's not cross." Those are the kinds of answers you could expect to hear from many typical A track underachievers- as compared to his/her much better cross stuff.