State Predictions

[Evan R.]

Originally Posted by the d

Port Washington Cross Country Invite
Port Washington, WI
October 8th, 2009
Boys Varsity
Place Name Year School Time Pace
===== ================== ==== ===================== ======== =====
1 Dan Schubert JR Appleton East 15:50.35 5:06
2 Taylor Wardall SR Appleton East 16:03.82 5:11
3 Sam Leschisin SR Appleton East 16:19.60 5:16
4 Josh Mulloy SR Cedar Grove-Belgium H 16:24.02 5:17

This is on a hilly port washington course in conditions similar to what state was run in. At best, this course is 5 seconds faster then state. The hills are small with the exception of a big hill run twice during the race. Definitely a impressive run by Schubert. He beat Josh Mulloy, the winner of D3, by 34 seconds. If this happens at state, with Mulloy running a 16:15, Schubert would've run a 15:41, not impossible after his run on this course. I dont think Schubert runs well enough to beat Paulson, he lost to him twice this year, once by a second and another by 10 seconds after running a 15:52 2 days earlier, but where exactly would Schubert fit in if he was healthy enough to run at state?

i agree that this was an impressive performance. i would also say tendick is slower than the state course. there is no part where the ground is nice/even/ or has nicely cut grass. its a great course to test runners. i would guess he would have been 5th. should be considered the number returner in my opinion.

[bekeleftw]

Originally Posted by westharrier60

Anyone running on 2 days rest is a recipe for disaster especially if this was happening more that once. It's no wonder he flamed out. Hopefully next year he will be more careful about his progression toward state. If he does he will be a favorite to take it all.

I don't know how his training was meant to be but for most teams it's up to the coach on when you run. I remember seeing that when it happened and was very confused as to why anyone would do that. From what I see on dyestat the appleton east coach is a good coach, so hopefully he learns from this.

Originally Posted by Evan R.

i agree that this was an impressive performance. i would also say tendick is slower than the state course. there is no part where the ground is nice/even/ or has nicely cut grass. its a great course to test runners. i would guess he would have been 5th. should be considered the number returner in my opinion.

In most cases I would agree with you on this, but I was at that meet and the grass was much shorter than usual. It had rained recently so the ground was somewhat soft. You also must remember the varsity boys ran either first or second that day, rather than sixth as the D1 boys did in state. A couple thousand pairs of spikes tends to break down a course a bit. IMO it is the best cc course in the state, becase there is varying terrain, it's hilly, and there is no cement anywhere. I would say on THAT DAY, Tendick was on par with, or maybe a little faster than, Ridges. Also, watching Schubert and Wardall run, if you would've told me appleton east had a 4:10 1:55 guy on there team, I would've said it was Schubert. He looked relaxed the whole time and lit the grass on fire coming into the finish.

EDIT: There was one bad spot about .75/2 miles in (you run it twice). It was quite muddy, but only for about 10 meters. Seems to be there every year!