State Predictions

[watchout]

I had some time to spare, so I'm working on the 1A projections... really unsure about the District 7 course, though. If anyone thinks that district looks off, let me know.

I'm using my CBBN league meet rating for the 1A meet at Walla Walla Point, and a guess at the SCAC meet based on what runners ran at Sunfair.


... will post results in a few minutes..




1A Boys Teams -
(School - Average Time - #1-5 Spread)

1. Nooksack Valley 103 17:17 1:35
2. Port Townsend 108 17:09 2:20
3. Seattle Christian 127 17:30 1:35
4. Lynden Christian 141 17:37 1:05
5. Meridian 147 17:43 1:00
6. Royal 176 17:49 1:50
7. Charles Wright Academy 178 17:44 2:25
8. Lakeside 190 17:57 1:25
9. Zillah 230 18:06 1:50
10. Freeman 248 18:15 1:25
11. Kiona Benton 271 18:21 1:00
12. Toledo 271 18:21 1:20
13. Onalaska 308 18:31 1:55
14. La Center 309 18:31 0:55
15. Cashmere 328 18:38 1:55
16. Chelan 341 18:43 1:10

Individuals -
1 Bereket Piatt Port Townsend 16:00
2 Oliver Bear Don't Walk Nooksack Valley 16:05
3 Habtamu Rubio Port Townsend 16:15
4 Max LaBerge Charles Wright Academy 16:35
5 Ethan Tonnemaker Royal 16:45
6 Michael Cross Seattle Christian 16:50
7 Jacob Hollander Lynden Christian 16:55
8 Michael Cardenas Seattle Christian 17:00
9 Sam Ryan Meridian 17:05
10 Andrew Dedo Cedar Park Christian 17:10
10 Harris "Hap" Emmons King's 17:10
10 James Beckman Seattle Christian 17:10
10 Johnny Barnes Zillah 17:10
14 Ruben Riordan Charles Wright Academy 17:15
15 Ryan Rojeski Lakeside 17:20
15 Colton Berry Lakeside 17:20
15 Xavier Frank Port Townsend 17:20
15 Alex Wright University Prep 17:20
15 Sean Ekstrand Zillah 17:20
20 Chris Wood Bush 17:25
20 Frank Krause Onalaska 17:25
20 Roy Angel Royal 17:25
20 Tylor Heit Vashon Island 17:25
24 Canute Haroldson Bush 17:30
24 David Goldstone Charles Wright Academy 17:30
24 Nicholas Cherrington Freeman 17:30
24 Nate Faubion King's 17:30
24 Evan Lee Meridian 17:30
24 Mitch Beard Nooksack Valley 17:30
24 Killian Marsh Northwest 17:30
31 Roman Velazquez Cashmere 17:35
31 Jose Garcia CONN 17:35
31 Ryan Gamache King's 17:35
31 Chris VandenBos Lynden Christian 17:35
31 Zach Crenshaw Lynden Christian 17:35
31 Jarrod Birkett Nooksack Valley 17:35
31 Connor Jackson Nooksack Valley 17:35
31 Jasper Heckman Orting 17:35
31 Joshua Rose Toledo 17:35
40 Forest Crouse Nooksack Valley 17:40
40 Will Van Cleve Northwest 17:40
40 Damon Halvorsen Tonasket 17:40
43 Ben Mega Freeman 17:45
43 Jarran Harris Tenino 17:45
45 Craig Besel Lakeside 17:50
45 Addison Harper Port Townsend 17:50
45 Ronnie Neumann Toledo 17:50
48 Leo Alvarez Kiona Benton 17:55
48 Marco Zamora Meridian 17:55
50 Tyler Reardon Lynden Christian 18:00
50 Luke Blok Lynden Christian 18:00
50 Hunter Weinert Lynden Christian 18:00
50 Paris Spiedel Meridian 18:00
50 Steven Bottoms Onalaska 18:00
50 Juan Jimenez Royal 18:00
56 Sean Cole Highland 18:05
56 Kyle Brightman Kiona Benton 18:05
56 Peter Dykes La Center 18:05
56 Kelby Todd Meridian 18:05
56 Michael Goble Omak 18:05
56 Andy Edmondson Seattle Christian 18:05
56 Heber Vazquez Wahluke 18:05
63 Wes Worthen Cashmere 18:10
63 Matt Zyph Kiona Benton 18:10
65 Raven Berman Chelan 18:15
65 Will Sipes Chewelah 18:15
65 Joe Salcedo Granger 18:15
65 Michael Townsend Highland 18:15
65 Kyle Kosak La Center 18:15
70 Cyrus Desmarais Chelan 18:20
70 Zeb Swanson Chewelah 18:20
70 Nick Flood Charles Wright Academy 18:20
70 Jeremy Schoenberg Kalama 18:20
70 Jordan VanDyken Nooksack Valley 18:20
70 Griffin Hoins Port Townsend 18:20
70 Jesus Peraza Royal 18:20
70 Cortes Hernandez Zillah 18:20
78 Trent Neiman Freeman 18:25
78 Kody Shriver Kalama 18:25
78 Joel Wiebe Meridian 18:25
78 Mitchell Hubbard Port Townsend 18:25
78 Damon Wells Seattle Christian 18:25
83 Niles Desmarais Chelan 18:30
83 Colten Fox La Center 18:30
83 Mitchell Middleton Lakeside 18:30
83 Alex Mills Lake Roosevelt 18:30
83 Quinn L'Hereux Port Townsend 18:30
88 Jesse Timm Chewelah 18:35
88 Josh Scholten Lynden Christian 18:35
88 Ryan Lefler Royal 18:35
88 Mikhail Hopf Toledo 18:35
92 Travis Patrick Castle Rock 18:40
92 Austin Fish Freeman 18:40
92 Travis Roos Kiona Benton 18:40
92 Kyle Agnew Rochester 18:40
92 Scott Thomas Zillah 18:40
97 Moises Sebastian La Center 18:45
97 Cody Constant Lakeside 18:45
97 Kyle Stoudt Lakeside 18:45
97 Tanner Loe Lake Roosevelt 18:45
97 Woody Woodruff Onalaska 18:45
102 Robby Godfrey Cashmere 18:50
102 Willie Reynolds Toledo 18:50
104 Dalton Fetsch Freeman 18:55
104 James Roberts Kiona Benton 18:55
104 Trevor Parsons Nooksack Valley 18:55
104 Larry Martin Royal 18:55
104 John Meis Seattle Christian 18:55
104 Wilson Flint Seattle Christian 18:55
104 Joe Durham Toledo 18:55
111 Harrison Salton Charles Wright Academy 19:00
111 Manny Schmaltz La Center 19:00
111 Justin Burgess Meridian 19:00
111 Isaac Estrada Zillah 19:00
115 James Stolhammer Cashmere 19:05
115 Aaron Schramm Chelan 19:05
115 Austin Hunt Onalaska 19:05
115 Brendan Shearer Zillah 19:05
119 Jake Firl La Center 19:10
120 Kyle Koch Lakeside 19:15
120 Ian Williams Zillah 19:15
122 George Kort Onalaska 19:20
123 Jorge Maldanodo Chelan 19:25
123 David Walker Kiona Benton 19:25
123 Cody Norman Kiona Benton 19:25
126 Kevin Bailey Cashmere 19:30
127 William Livingston Charles Wright Academy 19:35
127 Noah Grant Royal 19:35
129 Ross Neiman Freeman 19:40
130 Jorge Alvarez La Center 19:50
130 Tim Hummel Onalaska 19:50
132 Dawson Taylor Cashmere 20:00
133 Josh Burbery Chelan 20:05
133 Jack Dimmer Charles Wright Academy 20:05
135 Brad Wood Cashmere 20:15
136 Patrick Miess Onalaska 20:20
136 Chris Comstock Toledo 20:20
138 Rayne Lawrence Freeman 20:45
138 Gibb Freece Toledo 20:45
140 Ian Wyatt Chelan 20:55

[watchout]

.. and the 1A girls...


1A Girls Teams -
(School - Average Time - #1-5 Spread)

1. King's 53 20:45 1:15
2. Chelan 136 21:43 1:00
3. La Center 139 21:42 2:25
4. Lakeside 152 21:48 2:15
5. Seattle Academy 160 21:54 2:05
6. Northwest 190 21:46 4:50
7. Cashmere 197 22:13 2:45
8. Bellevue Christian 225 22:24 2:40
9. Nooksack Valley 225 22:22 3:30
10. Meridian 228 22:25 3:15
11. Cle Elum/Roslyn 231 22:28 3:15
12. Ilwaco 267 23:42 8:40
13. Omak 268 22:53 1:40
14. Onalaska 318 23:18 1:45
15. Zillah 333 23:33 3:10
16. Chewelah 409 26:15 7:25

Individuals -
1 Maddie Meyers Northwest 19:25
2 Eliza Rice Northwest 19:45
3 Kayleigh McCoy Orting 20:00
4 Ariana Cole Highland 20:05
4 Bailey DeBruin Nooksack Valley 20:05
6 Morgan Hamm King's 20:15
7 Carlee Creager Cle Elum/Roslyn 20:25
7 Makenzie Taylor King's 20:25
9 Sally Larson Cedar Park Christian 20:30
9 Adele Eslinger King's 20:30
11 Evangeline Rehwaldt Lakeside 20:35
12 Kea Paton Cashmere 20:40
12 Meagan Governor La Center 20:40
14 Kenna Middleton Lakeside 20:45
15 Cameo Ulbricht Ilwaco 20:50
16 Bree Oldham Bellevue Christian 20:55
16 Elizabeth Thompson University Prep 20:55
18 Mackenzie DeRuyter Freeman 21:00
18 Jayna Edmonds Meridian 21:00
18 Savannah Krug Vashon Island 21:00
21 Emily Harper Charles Wright Academy 21:05
21 Stephanie Rice King's 21:05
23 Gaby Guillen Chelan 21:10
24 Jill Crandall Meridian 21:15
24 Allison Peterson Montesano 21:15
24 Laura Kostad Orting 21:15
24 Shayla Maupin Seattle Academy 21:15
24 Clare Bartell Seattle Academy 21:15
29 Olivia Newman Highland 21:20
30 Jennifer Patterson Overlake 21:25
31 Lyndsey Fox Chelan 21:30
31 Sami McDevitt King's 21:30
31 Kasey Cokeley Montesano 21:30
31 Elizabeth Webber-Bruya Northwest 21:30
35 Noelle Crosby Bellevue Christian 21:35
35 Amanda Blankenship La Center 21:35
35 Miranda Bierscheid La Center 21:35
35 Tamara Kulla La Center 21:35
35 Courtney Hornby Rochester 21:35
40 Mari Schramm Chelan 21:40
40 Hannah Hoyt Meridian 21:40
40 Lauren Brewington Naches Valley 21:40
40 Grace Piatt Port Townsend 21:40
44 Linnea Hattery Annie Wright 21:45
44 Emily Visser Lynden Christian 21:45
44 Clare Liddell Seattle Academy 21:45
47 Diana Fernandez Cashmere 21:50
47 Kim Barry Lake Roosevelt 21:50
47 Emma Tuning Zillah 21:50
50 Rachel Warren Seattle Academy 21:55
50 Chloe Hanson Tenino 21:55
52 Cindy Pacheco Ilwaco 22:00
52 Brittany Grant Port Townsend 22:00
54 Sarah Lee Charles Wright Academy 22:05
54 Merya Carrion Chelan 22:05
54 Kristin Larson Forks 22:05
54 Vanessa Ahrendt Lakeside 22:05
54 Danielle Pecha Omak 22:05
59 Marisa Palazzo Chelan 22:10
60 Saxon Londagin Chewelah 22:15
60 Jessie Johnson Cle Elum/Roslyn 22:15
60 Kaitlyn Horn Kalama 22:15
63 Cody Knaub Chelan 22:20
64 Molly Kenoyer Cashmere 22:25
64 Jill Lambert Cle Elum/Roslyn 22:25
64 Addie Christensen Goldendale 22:25
64 Isreal Nickerson Newport 22:25
64 Carina Esquivel Nooksack Valley 22:25
64 Rachael Kraske Omak 22:25
64 Regan Givens Onalaska 22:25
71 Hailey Ziegler Cascade-Leavenworth 22:35
71 Kirsten Kunkel Kiona Benton 22:35
71 Jessica Lewis Kiona Benton 22:35
74 Jordan Harvey Nooksack Valley 22:40
75 Sydney Green Cashmere 22:45
75 Leticia Cervantes Ilwaco 22:45
75 Kendra Lahue Lakeside 22:45
75 Ashlee Barker Omak 22:45
79 Erin Peterson Bellevue Christian 22:50
79 Dianna Dopenburg Chewelah 22:50
79 Sofie Marikis Lakeside 22:50
82 Sarah Morse Newport 22:55
83 Solin Castro Chelan 23:00
83 Emily Simons Onalaska 23:00
83 Alexis Medelez Zillah 23:00
86 Val Montag Bellevue Christian 23:05
86 Lucy Lyons La Center 23:05
86 Natalie Vandeist Nooksack Valley 23:05
89 Emma Barr King's 23:10
90 Ashlie Beed La Center 23:20
90 Christina Smith Onalaska 23:20
90 Maddie Stein Seattle Academy 23:20
90 Jessica Walker Zillah 23:20
94 Jennifer Van Hoven Cashmere 23:25
94 Raven Rogers Ilwaco 23:25
94 Marcy Harris Omak 23:25
97 Mikaela Hoyer Cashmere 23:30
97 Morganne McCann Lakeside 23:30
97 Emma Yuh Coleman Seattle Academy 23:30
100 Jeannie Beth Sleight Bellevue Christian 23:35
100 Jamie Lambert Cle Elum/Roslyn 23:35
100 Brittany Van Dyken Nooksack Valley 23:35
100 Amanda Stratton Onalaska 23:35
104 Mari Wagsholm Cle Elum/Roslyn 23:40
105 Lynzee Davis Nooksack Valley 23:45
105 Ashley Robles Omak 23:45
107 Jessica Hofbauer Meridian 23:55
107 Camille Canter Northwest 23:55
107 Megan Thornton Omak 23:55
110 Umbee Cho Cashmere 24:00
110 Nicole Statler Omak 24:00
112 Michelle Yang King's 24:05
113 Emy Sanders Onalaska 24:10
114 Tasha Britton Lakeside 24:15
114 Rachel Hofbauer Meridian 24:15
114 Kelly Mucklestone Northwest 24:15
117 Alison King Bellevue Christian 24:30
117 Katrina Chamberlain La Center 24:30
117 Neisha Bhagwandin Onalaska 24:30
120 Marina Mendoza Meridian 24:35
120 Maricela Ramirez Zillah 24:35
122 Lauren Kilday Meridian 24:40
122 Honore Cole Northwest 24:40
124 Kylea Johnson Onalaska 24:50
125 Theodora Shure Northwest 24:55
126 Alexa Torrez Zillah 25:00
127 Jasmine Duque Nooksack Valley 25:10
128 Britta Perkins Bellevue Christian 25:15
129 Abbie Ziegler Zillah 25:20
130 Paige Brady Zillah 25:35
131 Alice Flood Seattle Academy 25:40
132 Francie Castrilli Cle Elum/Roslyn 26:00
133 Asia Rogers Cle Elum/Roslyn 26:40
134 Mallorie Powell Chewelah 26:50
135 Brittany King Ilwaco 29:30
136 Jessica Olson Chewelah 29:40
136 Lexi Powell Chewelah 29:40
138 Rissa Gerke Ilwaco 30:05
139 Taylor Weber Chewelah 30:20
140 Nicole Meyer Ilwaco 33:00

[Wildcat2002]

Are these just based off of the district meet? Or do you really think Chelan is going to beat us?

[Wildcat2002]

Ok, so I think you might be giving District 5, 6 and 7 to much credit, and not enough credit to District 4 and the Tri-District up north for the crappy conditions. For instance, we know Meagan Governor is capable of a 19:30, but you have her being beat by Carlee Creager. She hasn't run that fast this year... Also, if it is based off of district times, I'm confused as to how it is only going to take District 5 girls an extra 13 seconds to go from a 3 mile to a 5k? And if it's not based off of District times entirely, La Center shouldn't be 3rd for the girls and at the bottom for the boys.

But I really appreciate you putting in the time, I'm just curious how you got some of your numbers... (Not trying to be a pain in the ass... I'm just really OCD)

[watchout]

Originally Posted by Wildcat2002

Ok, so I think you might be giving District 5, 6 and 7 to much credit, and not enough credit to District 4 and the Tri-District up north for the crappy conditions. For instance, we know Meagan Governor is capable of a 19:30, but you have her being beat by Carlee Creager. She hasn't run that fast this year... Also, if it is based off of district times, I'm confused as to how it is only going to take District 5 girls an extra 13 seconds to go from a 3 mile to a 5k? And if it's not based off of District times entirely, La Center shouldn't be 3rd for the girls and at the bottom for the boys.

But I really appreciate you putting in the time, I'm just curious how you got some of your numbers... (Not trying to be a pain in the ass... I'm just really OCD)

I don't really pay attention to race distance, unless it's way off from the norm (i.e. a 4k/2.5 mile race)

I got the SCAC times based on what people ran at the Apple Ridge Run Classic and Sunfair (Sunfair is a slow 3 miles, runs about as fast as a pretty fast 5k)... the average difference was around 20 seconds. Now, granted, Sunfair was 2 weeks later and had more competition, but this was just a quick look.

I'm decently comfortable with my District 6 numbers, as long as conditions were similar at the district meet to when the CBBN teams ran there a couple weeks ago. If course conditions or the layout changed enough, the numbers would be off, but otherwise I think they should be good enough.

District 7 was pretty much a guess. Just assuming that it ran about the same as the WCD meet.

Yes, these are all based off of the district races. As for the times, keep in mind that I'm figuring the state course will run about 10-15 seconds slower than it did last year.


Also, remember that I never took into account differences between races on the same day -- i.e., all of the District IV meet adjustments is based off of the boys 2A race in comparison to other 2A, 3A, and 4A boys races. So if there was a huge difference in how the field (one runner running way out in front wouldn't change things, as it's the field and not the very top runners that determine the adjustment) raced, that would skew the numbers (so if the majority of the 1A District IV girls race went out slow for them, while the 2A District IV boys race went out fast for them, the 1A girls would be underrepresented in this, just as it would be for other districts that might have had similar situations). Also, I don't take into account if conditions on the course changed from one race to the next, so if the 2A boys ran in better conditions than the 1A girls, that would also have an effect... (though I think the 2A races were the last)





When all is said and done, though, these are just for fun. A decent way to compare runners from one race to another before they toe the line. It will all come down to who is best prepared to race on Saturday, mentally and physically.

[OlySoph66]

if other teams would like to join us, Olympia High School will be racing our two alternate runners Friday at about 5 pm on the State Course.
i know some people will disagree with racing alternates the day before the race but it's my coach's choice not mine

[iRunn]

watchout when're you gonna post your real predictions ?!

[Reed Runner]

Originally Posted by iRunn

watchout when're you gonna post your real predictions ?!

Yeah rub the magic lamp, shake the crystal ball... Come on YO! LOL j/k

[watchout]

Originally Posted by iRunn

watchout when're you gonna post your real predictions ?!

I won't have time to really look into it. So this is my off-hand opinion, which may or may not look better than the projections from the district/regional meets (which actually aren't too far off this).

4A Boys -
1/2. Jackson/Ferris
3. Issaquah
4. Gig Harbor
5. Auburn Riverside

1. Shane Moskowitz
2. Conner Peloquin
3. Mack Young
4. Kenny Krotzer
5. Adam Thorne

4A Girls -
1. Eastlake
2. Gig Harbor
3. Tahoma
4. Stanwood
5. Redmond

1. Anna Dailey
2. Devin McMahon
3. Baylee Mires
4. Maureen Tremblay
5. Priscilla Timmons
6. Clare Kane
7. Minna Fields


3A Boys -
1. North Central
2. Peninsula
3. Bellevue
4. Columbia River
5. Mt. Spokane

1. Ben Johnston
2. Drew ODM
3. Kyle Boe
4. Allan Schroeder
5. Trevor Thompson
6. Josh Reiter
7. Nathan Weitz

3A Girls -
1. Glacier Peak
2. Shadle Park
3. North Kitsap
4. Columbia River
5. Lakeside

1. Allison Clark
2. Amy-Eloise Neale
3. Kendra Weitz (if she's healthy? not sure why she didn't run regionals...)
4. Tansey Lystad
5. Katie Knight
6. Sarah Bobbee
7. Kayla Blackford




(Ideally, I'd look at the 3 biggest meets, including league and districts/regionals, as applicable to come up with a better answer... but that's just not in the cards this year, unless I do that on Friday)

[XCstud24]

Just wondering if you could expand these predicitons to possibly top 15 or so. Hopefully I see my name and get a boost of confidence before state. hahaha