There is very little doubt in my mind that a healthy German would be top 3; Chelenga and Derrick are the only guys I could have seen beating him. Most of the guys people are putting ahead of German he has beaten before, some of them several times. In fact, I would put Vail in the top 5 and a healthy German ‘was’ better than Vail. Based on what I have seen of GF so far this season, I still think he can probably make it into the 12.
Also, someone discounted GF's placing at world jr xc; that race is more competitive than the NCAA Champs. That race is extremely significant for African athletes, w/o exaggeration, they are literally running for their lives. Most of the top African jr athletes aren't thinking about an NCAA scholarship, they are thinking about money, a pro career and world jr xc is were most of them are introduced to the world and get signed. In the senior wxc race, you don't always get the best African athletes, but the 8 man jr Kenyan, Ethiopian, Moroccan, Eritrean teams will be the absolute best they have to offer. Now, include the other African countries, the Europeans, Japanese and South American athletes and you have the most competitive race on the planet. A major marathon, the Olympcis, world championships, etc., --there is no single race more competitive than world jr cross (Period!) Remember, we first met Bekele when he won wjr xc in 2001, his countryman, Gebremariam won in 2002, Eliud Kipchoge won the jr race in 2003; Sileshi Sihine, Kiprop Boniface, Sammy Kipketer, Nicholas Kemboi, etc., etc., all had top 10 finishes in the jr xc race. Some of these athletes are running sub-13 5ks and sub-27 10k with in 3 years of world jr cross. Btw, Geb finished 2nd in the jr race in 1992.
Last edited by TrackCoach : 11-06-2009 at 08:12 PM.
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