CC State Meet Site?

[westharrier60]

Originally Posted by Haile is my hero

No hostility is being taken, don't worry. I mean none as well. And again everyone, sorry for the multiple posts. I am a self proclaimed noob.

I will keep this post short. I have no problem with you disagreeing with my analysis of the changes in the top 50 from the mile mark to the finish. But only 2 runners who finished in the top 60 went out slower than 5:20. 5:20 is NOT a slow first mile, but it leaves you stuck. 4 runners in the top 75. 16 of the top 100. In a race where half the runners, yes 90 of them, go out over 5:20, only 16 make the top 100. This is not nauseating logic, and this is not my opinion. This is the reality. Don't try to say it is simply because of ability. This shows that the go out slow/conservative and move up tactic is largely ineffective. That last part is my analytical conclusion, not fact. I'll openly admit that. But I feel pretty confident about it. If you are a coach, would you feel confident in telling your guys to go out over 5:20 knowing there is a 16% chance of breaking the top 100 with that strategy? Again, 5:20 pace puts you well under 17 minutes if you run even.

I really like you analysis! Over the years I have seen teams go out at pace and get stuck and others go out like maniacs and run like they are carrying a piano on their back the last mile. There is another spot that each runner has to find depending on their goals and abilities. If you want to run a 16:40 you better NOT go out in 5:20 and obviously if you want to be an potential medalist or all state runner 5:20 is probably NOT a good choice either no matter if you think you can negative split or not. This sweet spot for each runner if it is found at Rapids makes all the difference. Some of the big time damage may be done in the first 400M. The lead cart had it that some of the leaders went out in 61s for the first 400M. If you have two guys that run 5:07 we shall say for the first mile and one runs the first 400 in 61s while the other one runs 72 seconds for the first 400M I will pick the guys who ran 72second to beat the one who ran 61s. I watching this years race I was really impressed with Sam Hacker's race management. No panic, smooth, and finished strong picking off fast starters most of the way but got out fast enough so he could move when he wanted to. Obviously he has a great coach, a Dad who's experience he can call on and the discipline to carry it out.

[Jbarry11]

Originally Posted by westharrier60

I really like you analysis! Over the years I have seen teams go out at pace and get stuck and others go out like maniacs and run like they are carrying a piano on their back the last mile. There is another spot that each runner has to find depending on their goals and abilities. If you want to run a 16:40 you better NOT go out in 5:20 and obviously if you want to be an potential medalist or all state runner 5:20 is probably NOT a good choice either no matter if you think you can negative split or not. This sweet spot for each runner if it is found at Rapids makes all the difference. Some of the big time damage may be done in the first 400M. The lead cart had it that some of the leaders went out in 61s for the first 400M. If you have two guys that run 5:07 we shall say for the first mile and one runs the first 400 in 61s while the other one runs 72 seconds for the first 400M I will pick the guys who ran 72second to beat the one who ran 61s. I watching this years race I was really impressed with Sam Hacker's race management. No panic, smooth, and finished strong picking off fast starters most of the way but got out fast enough so he could move when he wanted to. Obviously he has a great coach, a Dad who's experience he can call on and the discipline to carry it out.

Well, I think the key to doing well at Rapids is to run the course and not worry about other people the first 1.5 miles. This is exactly what Sam did and was told to do, and he benefited enormously from it.

[Haile is my hero]

You are right, the best way to run a 5k is to run the course the first 1.5 miles and then concentrate on beating as many people as you can from there. But he had 11 people in front of him at the mile, and was out in 5:03. I am in complete awe of what that kid is as a runner, but his race does not factor into this argument whatsoever. Guys towards the front of the race do not face anywhere near the same issues that the mobs do farther back.